Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 5/26/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Brendan Gawlowski: I need a couple minutes before we get going, finishing up something real quick. Sorry about the delay.

Brendan Gawlowski: Okay, sorry about thaaaat

Brendan Gawlowski: As I’m sure you saw, we did our Red Sox last week, fun system. Big thanks to Eric for swooping in on complex stuff so I could be fully present while covering the B12 tourney.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s tackling Pirates right now, I’ll be pivoting to… Giants? I think the Giants.

Brendan Gawlowski: But for now away we go

P: Not a question, but I bet Braves fans would pay for amazing prospect coverage. It’d be interesting to see if you could raise $x from fans to prioritize a system update, for example.

Brendan Gawlowski: We don’t even have to pass the hat, I hope. Their farm is one of the first I want to circle back on once we have all the lists done.

P: The Braves have seen tons of position players take a step forward this year (Hartman, Gil, Southisene, Guanipa, Drake, L. Espinoza, etc.). It can’t be a coincidence – can it be attributed to coaching changes, or anything else? Conversely, the pitching prospects haven’t performed as well yet – do you have an ideas why?

Brendan Gawlowski: It might be a Braves chat apparently

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m skeptical of some of those steps forward. Guanipa is playing well, for instance, but I don’t think he’s any different

Brendan Gawlowski: Southisene has made real changes in how he hits that have addressed the timing issues that sunk him last fall. He always had the talent to do this, I just couldn’t justify ranking him any higher over the winter with what the performance looked like.

Brendan Gawlowski: Hartman and Gil are the ones I think have jumped a little bit

Brendan Gawlowski: But even there, the ball changes make me want to be cautious before going nuts on anybody’s power right now

Matt: Hey Brendan, 2 things. 1) for some reason your chats don’t up in the prospects articles section under the prospect tab, is there an easy way to update that? Love your chats and wouldn’t want to miss them

Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks Matt, I’ll pass that along

Scioscia: What do you make of Juan Flores’ offensive output so far? Sustainable? Becoming a more well rounded prospect?

Brendan Gawlowski: Getting more comfortable with the level. Age appropriate too. Still think the bat is a slow mover, still think you’re mostly hoping he can hit eighth or ninth. Obviously this is a good sign for that forecast

daml91: Everyone knew the ceiling was massive, but did you see this this soon from the Miz?

Brendan Gawlowski: He hit the ceiling, it was always in there. In his prospect days I thought the ‘awesome five and dive’ was the median

Brendan Gawlowski: Hopefully he can stay healthy

leoneforthird: If Celesten continues his current level of performance does he move into the top 50 by End of Season.  And does change his time line from 2029 to 2028?

Brendan Gawlowski: Stock up, if he hits at Double-A he’s gonna jump pretty significantly.

Okra: All else equal, is it more difficult for a pitcher or hitter to add velo/power?

Brendan Gawlowski: Really depends on the body. Lean, young guys can both do it. Older, thirty-somethings… Occasionally pitchers do as they just try to air it out or get more flexible. Hitters are pretty much all declining.

Naylor Sailor: Is Gage Jump going to make his debut tonight against the Mariners? If the A’s were smart, they’d throw only left-handed pitchers against the Mariners offense.

Brendan Gawlowski: Is he? Severino/Springs listed next too days.

warpath: Any idea on what’s been going on with Dylan Crews? He’s shown flashes and the tools are still pretty loud, but the production seems to be less than the sum of the parts even in the minors over the last couple of years.

Brendan Gawlowski: If/when he starts pulling the ball more, let’s revisit. Until then, maybe he can be a regular…

jfunkhou: Who makes it to the show first, cole carrigg or cooper ingle? and will either one be successful this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Carrigg has the cleaner path. I’m assuming this is a fantasy question, in which case, bet on the Coors guy.

DbackJay: Is Alberto Barriga back and can he stick as a catcher with his height ? Because a 5 foot 9 catcher would be the coolest thing ever.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s definitely gonna stay there. He needs to, the glove’s his ticket to the big leagues.

Okra: Been watching two of the best rookie starters recently.  Nolan McLean’s pitches look unhittable and Cam Schlittler seems to only throw fastballs that somehow no one can hit.  Yet Cam is getting way better results.  Can you help me make sense of this?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nolan was doing just fine until two starts ago. I assume he’s still mostly fine but any time a WBC guy struggles I get a little antsy…

warpath: Hey Brendan, any thoughts on prospects who inexplicably seem to “lose it” and their skills degrade? I was watching Henry Davis play for the Pirates the other day and thought of this, there really seems to be no reason why he lost the ability to hit – he tore up the minors over a long period, had great offensive scouting grades, and just seems to be a different guy now.

Brendan Gawlowski: Have you noticed how many hard foul balls he yanks into the seats down the 3B line? There’s a bat path clue in there somewhere.

odin525: Since Sal Stewart’s 2-homer game on April 15th, he has hit .210 with a .368 slugging and 86 wRC+. Has he always struggled with breaking stuff and did that trait fit into his overall prospect profile? Are there concerns going forward or just part of the process? Either way, it seems someone from one of your first chats owes you an apology.

Brendan Gawlowski: No football to spike here, still think Stewart’s a very good hitter. Guys have a bad month sometimes.

Brendan Gawlowski: Big league breaking balls are a different animal. An adjustment period at some point is normal.

Daron: 24-year old OF Victor Bericoto hasn’t received much prospect buzz, but he’s been an above league average hitter by wRC+ at nearly every stop throughout his minor league progression, and now he’s been added to the Giants MLB roster. Do you think he’s got a chance to outperform his [lack of] prospect pedigree?

Brendan Gawlowski: Could be a bench guy. I’ll have him in the 35+/40 area on the SFG list

Brendan Gawlowski: fwiw that’s about where I had him in A+ a few years back

Ray Darwin: Does Ryan Ward ever get a shot with another team ala Michael Busch?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think he’s that kind of player but it’s long made sense for someone out of it to give him a couple hundred at bats to find out for sure.

Ray Darwin: Do you think the Marlins will give Rece Hinds an extended (i.e. >100 PAs)?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe? I don’t think it’s a huge priority.

Hollis: Hey Brendan, thanks for your time. Do you see enough positive growth so far from Colt Emerson (small a sample as its been) to lead you to believe he’ll become a solid MLB hitter as soon as this season? Much appreciated!

Brendan Gawlowski: Very mature player and hitter, tends to figure things out quickly but he has needed a brief acclimation period at other levels. I suspect he will at this one too.

Craig: Predictions on the first big time Dodgers OF prospect to get a chance in the majors?

Brendan Gawlowski: Ryan Wa– oh you said a chance… De Paula.

Surplus Valuez = Profits = Stolen Wages: Michael Lombardi….big up arrow or small up arrow? Medium?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s added the power breaking ball I speculated about in the Royals review. It’s hit or miss but flashes above average, positive development for him overall.

Brendan Gawlowski: Throwing his change a little more too. Odds of starting are up, still think he’s more likely a reliever in the long run. But maybe closer to 40/60 than the 20/80 or so I’d have put on it a few months ago.

Brendan Gawlowski: Fastball is often all over the place, tough to start if you can’t get that harnessed. Hopefully he can/will.

AHume92: What does outfield defensive development look like?  What improvements do teams look for and how are they measured?

Brendan Gawlowski: Different players will have different things they need to work on, but everybody’s progressing toward a point where they can read the ball as quickly as possible off the bat, take the most efficient route there, and catch everything they get their hands on. There are also footwork nuances on how to catch it when a runner tags and how to get rid of the ball more quickly and accurately.

Brendan Gawlowski: This could maybe be an article

mason morris: D-backs Manuel Pena has been absent from system lists for awhile but he’s found a new power stroke at 22 years old. Is it worth taking another peak for you and Eric?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m still skeptical but would like to source the data there at least.

dnc: “But even there, the ball changes make we (you meant “me”, I presume) want to be cautious before going nuts on anybody’s power right now”

Can you expand on the ball changes? What do we know has changed, and at what level(s)?

Brendan Gawlowski: Nice catch on the typo

Brendan Gawlowski: We don’t know what’s changed exactly

Brendan Gawlowski: But homers are up dramatically (nearly 100% in some leagues) everywhere Double-A and lower

Brendan Gawlowski: In a way that almost has to be ball related

Brendan Gawlowski: Until we find out exactly what’s happening, I think it’s worth taking big jumps in power with a grain of salt.

Brendan Gawlowski: As a default.

Charles Bengal Tiger: How far away will Jo Jo Parker and Xavier Neyens be from the top 100 by the end of the season?

Brendan Gawlowski: We nearly ranked Parker in particular, can’t say he’s banged the door down to make us look like idiots for not pulling the trigger… That said, a strong second half probably gets him on it. Neyes may make it too.

Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: If you come across a fresh looking stirfry on a hiking trail, would you:

a) eat it
b) strongly consider eating it
c) briefly consider eating it
d) throw it off a cliff
e) bring it to the local police station

Brendan Gawlowski: f) keep going

dbailit: how do you think the mets, red sox, and padres will all approach the deadline? Will the mets and sox buy despite low playoff odds? Obviously the Padres will want to buy but do they even have pieces other orgs want?

Brendan Gawlowski: Boring answer on NYM/BOS: They’re going to play it out a couple more months and then sell if they’re out of it, probably hold if they’re in the third WC race, buy if there’s a shot for more.

Brendan Gawlowski: SDP will almost certainly look to buy. I don’t think they can get Yordan but Salas/Mayfield/Schoolkraft/Mendez could bring back something pretty darn interesting.

Charles Bengal Tiger: How involved will you be in Fangraphs MLB draft previews and coverage? Any favorite players that you’re tracking?

Brendan Gawlowski: At least somewhat. I just covered the B12 tourney, hoping to write a recap on the prospects there on my plane back home tonight.

Luis: Re: Your comment on homers being up, do you think we should be skeptical in looking at Luis Lara’s huge jump in power this year? Or does he have the metrics to back up that power?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s in Triple-A, so the ball is less of an issue there. Lemme see if I can source the power data there by the end of the chat

Ray: Thoughts on Angel stadium chants involving the F word and Arte Moreno… Any chance MLB pressures him to sell eventually?

Brendan Gawlowski: Think it’s just going to be increasingly common to hear that in places where the team has been bad for a while.

Brendan Gawlowski: MLB will only act if an owner threatens to cost them all a lot of money. And even then, maybe not.

Brendan Gawlowski: The league didn’t force out McCourt for the Dodgers being mediocre/slightly embarrassing. He got the boot when he wanted to sign a well below market value TV deal for a quick cash infusion.

George: Realize it’s a particularly SSS for Ewing, but from what you’ve seen of AJ and Benge in the bigs so far, who do you like best ROS?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll go Benge

E: Given the recency of the Sox list, and your warning about believeing power spikes, do you think Franklin Arias’ power jump is real, a product of the league-wide spike, just a hot streak, or a little of all three?

Brendan Gawlowski: Some blend.

Daniel Bergman: Fastball usually gets a single grade, but what if someone has multiple fastballs, and what if they play well off each other greater than the sum of their parts?

Brendan Gawlowski: Different teams/spots have different ways to handle it. With PIT we evaluated each fastball separately.

Brendan Gawlowski: For us, we try to include the nuance in how they play off each other in our grade

donald mezick: When does Kade Anderson come up and expectations for 2026

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll say August 24th.

Brendan Gawlowski: I assume the 18 batter limit they seem to be imposing is meant to save bullets for down the stretch.

tdmoc: +1 on articles about developing defense

on that note, how much game tape do you need to see before changing a guy’s fielding grade?

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s a tricky question to answer. Do you mean for someone who has changed? Or just to see if someone is tracking along from the 40/50 grade and is now more of a 45?

Daron: What are some of the key aspects you look at when evaluating a pitching prospect’s chances to stick as a starter?

Brendan Gawlowski: Can he throw strikes? Can he move the ball around the zone, either up and down or side to side? If not, does he have good enough stuff for it to not matter? Is he stretched out enough to offer length? Does he have an average fastball or better? If not, does he have a monster secondary? Does he have secondary pitches to get hitters out from both sides of the plate?

E: Is river ryan gonna force the dodgers’ hand? Doesn’t seem like they need to be throwing lauer instead of ryan, even if they 5 and dive ryan.

Brendan Gawlowski: Not sure what more they need to see.

Brendan Gawlowski: There could be a KPI there, I don’t know, but he sure looks good.

The Jolliest Roger: If you could build a scouting report from scratch, would you still use the 20-80 scale? Generally speaking, what would your template look like? I can’t help but feel the standard template isn’t optimized for this era of the game with all the information we have. Do most orgs have more advanced templates now?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think you can use any one of a variety of systems/templates and it’ll be fine so long as everybody is on the same page about what the scale is. Eric’s system is different than what PIT used when I was there, which is different than what PIT is using now. All can work.

twelvejones: As you reach the end of Team List season, did you have a favorite/least favorite org to cover this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Boston was really fun to cover, came in mostly cold and was blown away by the arms.

Brendan Gawlowski: I got violent food poisoning while covering the Orioles and while it’s not the least bit fair, I’m having some trouble disassociating those things.

Brendan Gawlowski: It doesn’t help that they had so many pitches throwing max effort with 20/30 control.

Brendan Gawlowski: The systems that have a lot of guys with paths forward are generally fun too. Colorado/LAA come to mind.

Brendan Gawlowski: Cleveland with all the hit tools

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re mostly fun.

doich9: Spencer Jones had a pretty ugly introduction to the top level. Plenty of good players come back a 2nd or 3rd time and stick. Did you see anything from him that makes you think he can be one of those guys?

Brendan Gawlowski: No changes in my thoughts on Jones. “He strikes out 45% of the time and never figures it out” is definitely a possibility. I’d still wanna be the team that gets to find out for sure.

odin525: From a fishing standpoint, would you rather have 1-2 65+ and a bunch of 40+ or a litter 45-50+ and hope a few exceed the ratings? In other words, would you prefer top heavy or balanced with a lighter top?

Brendan Gawlowski: Take the monster.

James Doehle: Do you think either Hope or De Paula debut for the Dodgers by the end of the season or are they trade bait?

Brendan Gawlowski: A Hope debut would surprise me. De Paula less so, though I’m not sure it’s likely. Don’t think either is untouchable.

Re: Nats: Is Curtis Mead for real? .844 OPS, and not just doing it with the platoon advantage. I wonder what is trade value is like, and how the former prospect pedigree affects that

Brendan Gawlowski: Decent player running a little hot is my guess.

Brendan Gawlowski: Trade value is an interesting question. A lot of models have a long tail on hype guys, so someone like Mead starting to hit will light up a model more than, I dunno, Trevor Hauver.

Brendan Gawlowski: Sorry Trevor, I don’t know why you came to mind first.

Brendan Gawlowski: I like you too.

warpath: Thoughts on TJ Rumfield this year, who seems like he was a sneaky good pickup by the Rockies? He seems to have taken a step forward and has a shot to be an everyday 1B

Brendan Gawlowski: Enough power to be dangerous as a Rockie, probably not enough to start elsewhere

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t really move off the 40 I gave him this winter yet.

tdmoc: I guess I’m asking, how do you know if someone has changed or is just “running hot/cold” on defense? if the 40/50 grade implies you expect the guy to improve over time, how do you know if the improvement (or stalling or backsliding) is real?

Brendan Gawlowski: These are good questions.

Brendan Gawlowski: “It depends” covers so much ground, I’m sure it’s annoying to read, but…

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s take Felnin Celesten as an example, since he was a 40/50

Brendan Gawlowski: He was graded that way because he has good instincts/feel and enough range for short but the reliability piece wasn’t there

Brendan Gawlowski: So, in his case, we’d want to see fewer errors

Brendan Gawlowski: Or some blend of fewer errors while also getting to more balls than I envisioned at the time of the report

Brendan Gawlowski: he was still a little shaky with the glove in April, so I wouldn’t have changed a thing then. In June? We’ll seeeee

doich9: When do you think the Red Sox will promote Franklin Arias to AAA? Certainly earned it, but its only been about 150 PAs.

Brendan Gawlowski: In the grand scheme, whether he spends another month or three there isn’t terribly significant imo.

Silver: 10th Home run for Jhonny Level this morning.. leading the Cal League at 19.. how high is this dude gonna clibm

Brendan Gawlowski: Another case where I’d be a little skeptical of the power. And I love Level. I just don’t think he’s suddenly grown into a ton of juice.

Intrigued Fantasy Owner: Hi Brendan. Thanks for all your great content. Long time reader (since you joined), but never available during the chats to ask a question. Mine is a 2 parter.. First, can you provide a few names of prospects in the 45+ – 50 range that you think are stars (where others may not). The second is, who are some names in the 50 that you would be on if gun was to your head to be a perennial all star? Tiny rationale would be awesome too. Thanks for taking the time

Brendan Gawlowski: The younger 45+’s are the ones with star potential. Azocar with Boston is one where we were real close to 50’ing.

Brendan Gawlowski: Loud tools, questionable feel to hit keeps him down, but see manipulation in the path to think it might be in there.

Guest: What more do the Giants want to see from Jhonny Level in single-A?

Brendan Gawlowski: Perhaps a bit more discernment? There are a lotta wild arms in the Cal League, 6% walk with similar underlying numbers isn’t amazing.

doich9: Related to the Arias question: is there much variation from Org to Org on how big a sample of success they want to see before moving guys up a level? Or is it pretty much “case by case” across the league?

Brendan Gawlowski: Everybody’s case by case to some extent. Some orgs are more inclined to push quickly than others as a general matter, but there’s some fluidity in there too. LAA hasn’t been especially aggressive this year, for instance.

Brendan Gawlowski: And they’re usually the ones pushing guys the most aggressively.

warpath: Would there ever be a scenario (other than a playoff run) where it makes sense to call up a top prospect for an extended bench role? Or is it pretty much always best to make sure the blue chip guys get regular playing time?

Brendan Gawlowski: For a hitter, I’d want them to get the AB’s. I think giving a pitcher a smaller role (like what ATL is doing with Fuentes right now) is fine. It doesn’t appeal to my biased ass because I am just intellectually curious as to how Fuentes would look as a starter against big league hitters multiple times through an order. But there’s tons of precedent for eventual starters to cut their teeth in relief.

canderson20: Update on the Sevy-Jump question earlier: they’re moving Sevy’s start back, Jump gets the start tonight

Brendan Gawlowski: There ya go.

Brendan Gawlowski: Thank you canderson20. If you have another Q in the next five minutes or so I promise to answer it.

comfreyheals: Emmet Sheehan, Zhyir Hope and Ryan Ward at the trade deadline. Do you see other teams willing to top that offer?

Brendan Gawlowski: For whom?

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s good, obviously, but hardly untoppable

jarred kelenic: The Mets have a chance to do something so funny right now……is he the biggest prospect bust in memory for you? who are some of the bigger busts that you covered, and did you see it coming with any of them?/

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t really like ragging on guys like that. Thsi game is hard. Kelenic has had a career, had a two win season, taken some big AB’s in important spots… It’s not what we all thought/hoped he’d become but who knows, he might not be cooked either.

Maurice Lepouttre: The Arizona list came out in December. Has your eval on Kayson Cunningham changed at all based on his performance this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: It has not.

millvillemeltdown: do you think baseball would be a better or worse game if they banned outfield positioning cards?

Brendan Gawlowski: Better.

Brendan Gawlowski: But it’d be a lot better if we made them cover more groud.

RAH: Brady Ebel has been on fire after a painfully slow start. Do you think he could be a candidate for a midsummer promotion?

Brendan Gawlowski: My inclination there is to let him really whack the ball for awhile. Make him give you an emphatic reason to push.

Sir Nerdlington: How will the NCAA’s 5 in 5 work for the draft? Will guys be eligible after the third year (equivalent of Jr year)?

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s see what the CBA has to say…

lucasbickle: I’m a sucker for the +45s. I’m looking at Gabriel Rodriguez. Any thoughts on the Cleveland system?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure. Arias and Walton too.

Donnie Donaldson: Would you say the Brewers are the “Rays of the NL”? Seems like they always win trades and lately have been especially good at developing young talent.

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re two of the best run orgs, certainly.

Guest: biggest jump up prospects list next year will be ____

Brendan Gawlowski: Globally? Could be Hartman.

sun55dance: I have been stashing Charlie Condon. When do you think he will be called up? The Rockies outfield is very weak, he could only help.

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think it’s imminent, he’s not exactly crushing the PCL

mike sixel: I feel like I should play the … I’m in Scotland on vacation and still following your chat card, to get a twins question answered, but I don’t have a good question. So I’ll just say…. The prospect coverage is great thanks. It’s post hiking in Glen Coe relaxing time….

Brendan Gawlowski: Thank you and hope you’re having a great trip!

Keith Hernandez: Does Ralphy take over 1B for Cleveland at some point in the second half? Is he trade bait?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think he gets a shot, yeah.

George Lewis: Eric mentioned the plan is for you to cross check some of each others lists. I’m curious about two Nats middle infielders: Fitz-Gerald and Cruz. I know Cruz is the hot name, but the in-zone whiff and breaking ball recognition really scares me. On the other hand, DFG is my ideal profile: switch hitter with barrel control and plus swing decisions. Would you agree with Eric in having Cruz over DFG or is that something you’d want to look at more?

Brendan Gawlowski: I trust his evals. If I put on the tape, I may come to a different conclusion than he would, but I don’t have any objection to how he put the list together.

mills9lane: Hear anything on Dean Livingston? He’s out of the gates hot

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes, heard from a scout who really liked him.

sandwiches4ever: Not really a question, but even if you’re not a hitting mechanics guy (I’m not), Spencer Jones’…elaborate (?) pre-pitch routine can’t be helping his contact rate. I know that’s far from the only problem, but man, he makes me twitchy just watching him.

Brendan Gawlowski: it’s a little weird but it’s also a little less weird than it used to be.

warpath: On the rise in homers and the ball at some levels: Do you think the run environments in some minor leagues are bad for some players, i.e. they can build up some bad habits? Orgs have to be aware of that, yes?

Brendan Gawlowski: At the margins, maybe. Wouldn’t want to put a command guy in Asheville right now…

Guest: Do you think it’s a bit of a red flag when a hitter is walking maybe a little too much? Obviously you don’t want a guy to be constantly swinging at garbage, but you don’t want him to just be content with taking walks and ignoring crushable pitches either, especially against minor league pitching.

Brendan Gawlowski: I think it’s less a red flag than perhaps a number where once you reach a certain threshold, a higher percentage doesn’t really indicate much.

Brendan Gawlowski: The devil is in the details on a hitter’s walk rate

Brendan Gawlowski: Is he passive? Is he walking a bunch because he can’t make contact and just runs deep counts every AB? Does he actually have a great approach? If yes, will it withstand scrutiny by elite arms?

opifijikl: Beyond the prospect list, could you tell us more about the Red Sox pitchers please? Would love to hear more about what they’re doing well! Love the list!

Brendan Gawlowski: Overview at the bottom covers it well: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-48-prospects/

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve gotta scram

Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks all for stopping by

Brendan Gawlowski: We’ll do it again next week and go long again.