FanGraphs Power Rankings: May 18–24

We’re a third of the way through the regular season, which is when the standings start to matter and win-loss records start to become more predictive of summer results. That’s an exciting prospect for the league’s surprise contenders, if a frightening one for some of the playoff hopefuls that are struggling to make headway in the standings.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

All power rankings stats, including team records, are updated through Sunday’s games. The rest of the information below is current as of Tuesday morning.

FanGraphs Power Rankings

Rank	Team	W-L	Hot/Cold	Elo	Opp Elo	Playoff%	Power Score	Δ
1	ATL	36-18		1589	1491	96.9%	1598	0
2	TBR	34-16	—	1587	1490	92.3%	1597	0
3	LAD	33-20		1589	1493	99.3%	1592	0
4	MIL	30-20		1562	1501	75.7%	1563	2
5	CLE	32-23		1540	1499	77.9%	1548	5
6	SDP	31-21		1544	1498	48.9%	1547	-1
7	NYY	31-22	—	1534	1490	97.8%	1543	0
8	ARI	28-24		1525	1504	41.9%	1520	7
9	STL	29-22	—	1517	1500	30.5%	1518	-1
10	CHC	29-24		1518	1508	53.1%	1516	-6
11	PHI	26-27	—	1520	1498	58.0%	1508	-2
12	ATH	27-26		1495	1500	42.3%	1497	1
13	MIN	26-27		1499	1495	34.5%	1497	11
14	TOR	25-28		1498	1494	44.4%	1492	4
15	PIT	27-26	—	1499	1498	45.9%	1491	-1
16	SEA	25-29		1489	1492	65.2%	1484	0
17	WSN	27-27	—	1490	1510	2.9%	1482	6
18	CIN	27-25	—	1485	1501	13.6%	1480	2
19	CHW	26-26	—	1480	1495	8.3%	1480	-7
20	TEX	24-28		1482	1515	39.5%	1478	-9
21	BOS	22-30	—	1482	1508	26.4%	1472	-2
22	MIA	25-29		1480	1507	5.4%	1469	5
23	HOU	23-31		1472	1492	13.6%	1462	5
24	SFG	22-31	—	1475	1516	7.9%	1460	-3
25	BAL	23-30	—	1464	1497	20.5%	1455	-3
26	NYM	22-31	—	1470	1488	18.6%	1455	-9
27	KCR	22-31	—	1457	1496	17.5%	1447	-2
28	DET	21-33		1431	1498	18.5%	1420	-2
29	LAA	20-34	—	1412	1498	1.2%	1403	1
30	COL	20-34	—	1406	1520	0.0%	1394	-1

Elo up >20 pts (last 10) | Elo down >20 pts (last 10)
Avg opp Elo >1525 (last 10) | Avg opp Elo <1475 (last 10)

…

The Braves lost consecutive games for just the third time this season this past weekend, dropping two straight to the Nationals in a surprisingly hard-fought series. Despite that small hiccup, Atlanta is completely in control of the NL East; the team has an 8 1/2 game lead over Washington and is showing no signs of slowing down.

The Rays wound up splitting their rain-shortened series against the Yankees over the weekend after Aaron Judge blasted a walk-off home run on Sunday. That loss snapped a five-game win streak, though Tampa Bay is still 3 1/2 games ahead of New York in the AL East. The team’s offense has been humming along, sitting in the top five in baseball in batting average and on-base percentage, though they’re just 28th in home runs and isolated power. The entire package has been solid — a 104 wRC+ puts them eighth in the majors — but there’s a pretty clear path to improving the lineup as the Rays start planning how to approach the trade deadline.

The Dodgers won four of six against the Padres and Brewers last week, successfully completing a gauntlet against some of the best teams in the National League. Shohei Ohtani had collected hits in eight straight games since his short reset at the plate a few weeks ago; he was held hitless on Sunday, but has compiled a 235 wRC+ over his last 10 games. Teoscar Hernández is also heating up; he’s collected 18 hits and three home runs over the last two weeks. Of course, one of the biggest reasons the Dodgers have enjoyed so much recent success is a bullpen that just had a 38-inning scoreless streak snapped Monday night.

In a series that flipped the NL Central standings, the Brewers swept the Cubs last week. Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison combined for 13 scoreless innings and 19 strikeouts in that series, as Milwaukee’s pitching staff held Chicago to just five total runs. Misiorowski has been particularly impressive in May; he allowed his first run of the month in his start on Monday and has collected 49 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. Even though they couldn’t overcome the Dodgers this past weekend, the Brew Crew took the first game of a huge series against the Cardinals on Monday.

The Guardians have gone streaking up the standings. They’ve won four straight series, compiling an excellent 11-3 record over the last two weeks; the Nationals scored 10 runs against Cleveland on Monday, just the second time the Guardians have allowed more than four runs in a single game during this stretch. With the Tigers and Royals in danger of falling out of the American League playoff picture entirely, it really does seem like the AL Central is Cleveland’s to lose.

The Yankees welcomed Gerrit Cole back last week and he looked great in his return; he held the Rays scoreless over six innings, allowing just two hits while striking out two. New York ended up splitting that series against Tampa Bay, which means the team hasn’t won a series since taking two of three from the Rangers in the first week of May. Aaron Judge has run a 92 wRC+ during this slide; his walk-off home run on Sunday was his first homer since May 10.

The Diamondbacks have very quickly turned their season around. Including their win on Monday, Arizona has gone 12-4 over their last 16 games and are suddenly in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Ketel Marte has been on fire during this stretch. Seven of his last nine games have been multi-hit affairs, and he’s collected 24 hits and three home runs over the last two weeks, good for a 241 wRC+. Not to be out done, Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a 13-game hit streak, with 21 total hits, two homers, and a 261 wRC+.

The Cardinals went 2-3 against the Pirates and Reds last week, and will wrap up a tour of their NL Central foes with series against the Brewers and Cubs this week. For now, the Red Birds are in second place in the division and holding onto a Wild Card spot, but they lost the first game of their series in Milwaukee on Monday and need to turn things around against the division’s leaders.

It was a nightmare of a week for the Cubs. Including their loss on Monday, they’ve now lost nine straight and 13 of their last 15. The team has been shut out four times, and has scored three or more runs in just five games during this cold snap. With three more games in Pittsburgh and a weekend series in St. Louis coming up, Chicago is slumping at exactly the wrong time. The NL Central has been the most interesting division in baseball so far this season, and it seems like the standings could look a lot different by the end of this week.

The Phillies had some of their forward momentum derailed last week, losing consecutive series to the Reds and Guardians. Jacob Misiorowski’s run in May has been dazzling, but Cristopher Sánchez has been almost as good; he hasn’t allowed a single run this month and has struck out 36 batters in 32 innings. With Zack Wheeler back in the fold and Jesús Luzardo earning results more in line with his peripherals, the Phillies rotation finally looks like a strength after a rough first month of the season.

After a pretty rough finish to their April, the Twins have mostly stabilized in May. They’ve won four of their last five series, going 10-5 over their last 15 games. But even with the positive results, Minnesota’s roster has been in a state of flux. Ryan Jeffers fractured his hamate bone last week, and the team has demoted both Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner to Triple-A amidst their ongoing struggles. Thankfully, Byron Buxton is healthy and leading the offense; after a bit of a slow start, he’s posted a 188 wRC+ in May with eight home runs.

The Blue Jays starting rotation is being stretched to the breaking point. With Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, José Berríos, and Cody Ponce all already sidelined, Dylan Cease joined them on the IL on Monday with a mild hamstring strain. It’s not as significant as losing Berríos to Tommy John surgery, but it does thin a rotation that was already struggling to cover innings. Thankfully, the team managed to avoid another major blow on Sunday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was pulled from the game after being hit on the elbow by a pitch, but he doesn’t seem to have suffered any lasting damage and should return to the lineup early this week.

The Reds are still trying to rebound from their eight-game losing streak to start the month of May. They’ve gone 8-6 since stopping that slide, but that hasn’t been good enough to keep pace in a competitive NL Central. Still, even if they’re not as good as their incredibly hot start made it seem, a bunch of the key pieces in their core have taken big steps forward this year. Elly De La Cruz is leading the offense with a 143 wRC+, and Chase Burns has been brilliant on the mound. It wouldn’t be surprising to see those two lead the Reds on an exciting playoff chase this summer — and remember, Hunter Greene is on the mend and expected to return around the All-Star break.

It looked like the Red Sox had a bit of momentum on their side after sweeping the Royals last week, but they were swept at home by the Twins this past weekend and fell back into the cellar of the AL East. It’s hard to keep pace with the powerhouses in the division when key players like Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony have been sidelined with injuries. At least Willson Contreras is doing his best to carry the lineup; he collected 11 hits, two triples (!), and two home runs last week.

The Marlins couldn’t do much against the Braves last week, dropping three of four to the NL East leaders, but Miami bounced back by sweeping the Mets over the weekend. It’s been good to see Sandy Alcantara mostly back to his old self, but the most encouraging development on the pitching staff has been the breakout of Max Meyer. After dealing with injuries for the majority of the last few years, he’s posted a 2.52 ERA and a 2.98 FIP in 11 starts this season.

The collapse of the Tigers has been swift. They managed to snap an eight-game losing streak with a win in the second game of a double-header on Sunday, but it was just their third win in 19 games since placing Tarik Skubal on the IL on May 4. Things have gotten so bad in Detroit that Skubal trade rumors have started back up. He’s making an extremely quick recovery from his elbow surgery, and there’s reason to believe he’ll be back on the mound sometime in June. That would give the team about a month or so to really decide if they’re making a run for the playoffs or if they’d be better off trading Skubal and resetting the roster for next year.

Since the Rockies swept the Mets back on April 24–26, they’ve won just seven times in 26 games. That sweep had Colorado sniffing .500, but the team is now 15 games under. Mickey Moniak, the guy who had been leading the offense, was placed on the IL last week with a sprained ankle, and while that isn’t as serious as the elbow strain suffered by Chase Dollander a few weeks ago, the two brightest spots on the Rockies roster are now sidelined.

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