Cooperstown Notebook: Chris Sale and Others Making Tracks Toward Plaques

Three years ago, Chris Sale appeared to be pretty close to the end of the line. After missing the abbreviated 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery, he made just 11 starts totaling 48 1/3 innings in 2021–22 while battling further injuries, including a stress fracture of a rib and fractures of his left pinky and right wrist. When he was sidelined by yet another stress fracture — this one in his scapula — in June 2023, he missed 10 weeks, and his ERA ballooned to 4.88 after returning to make half a dozen starts. It was fair to think the 34-year-old lefty’s most productive days were behind him, as his wiry 6-foot-6 frame could no longer withstand the rigors of regular duty.

Lo and behold, Sale made a strong showing over his final three starts of 2023, capturing the attention of the Braves, who traded infielder Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox in a straight-up exchange in December 2023 and soon restructured his contract. Sale rewarded Atlanta’s faith by winning both the pitching Triple Crown (with 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts) and the Cy Young award that had long eluded him. Though he was limited to 20 starts last year by a fractured rib, he has continued to dominate; this year, the 37-year-old southpaw ranks second in the NL in ERA (2.20), FIP (2.26), and strikeout rate (30.6%) behind Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski, as well as third in FanGraphs WAR (4.9) behind The Miz and Cristopher Sánchez. And while he’s “only” sixth in Baseball Reference WAR (4.5), Sale’s run with the Braves has pushed his S-JAWS past 2025 Hall of Fame inductee CC Sabathia (50.8). Sale won’t catch any of the big four from this era — Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer, the last of whom may be the only one active after this season — but he’s the only other active or recently retired starter with an S-JAWS above 45.0. As voters scramble to recalibrate their Hall of Fame standards for starting pitchers in an age of diminished workloads, Sale has likely punched his ticket to Cooperstown.

It hasn’t been a great season for veterans vying to shore up their Hall of Fame credentials, as I noted on Monday, with injuries sidelining hopefuls such as Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton, and age seemingly catching up to Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, and others. Yet Sale isn’t alone among mid-career players who have advanced their causes. What follows here is a partial position-by-position roundup of some others whose odds of earning a spot Cooperstown have improved this season, at least by my reckoning. Not every position is covered, and at some positions, the top candidates wound up in the previous installment because their chances have taken a hit. I’ve included each player’s JAWS standing, his 2026 WAR (Baseball Reference’s version unless otherwise indicated), and his ZiPS rest-of-season projection.

Chris Sale

Though he’s passed Sabathia in S-JAWS despite shouldering a comparatively lighter workload, Sale isn’t going to approach the big man’s 251 career wins, and he has his work cut out to reach Sabathia’s 3,093 strikeouts. Sale has totaled just 2,219 innings so far, but he’s packed a lot into them, with 10 All-Star selections, six top-five finishes in the Cy Young voting in addition to his win, a 157-97 record, and 2,745 strikeouts. According to Dan Szymborski’s hot-off-the-presses ZiPS-driven estimates, Sale has a 45% chance of reaching 200 wins, higher than any active pitcher besides Cole (48%), and a 79% chance of registering 3,000 strikeouts, a surprisingly rare feat among lefties, with Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, Sabathia, and Kershaw the only ones to get to that level. He’s 53rd in S-JAWS, within 1.2 points of leapfrogging David Cone and four Hall of Famers — Clark Griffith (an excellent pitcher inducted as a pioneer/executive), Bob Feller, Stan Coveleski, and Dazzy Vance — and within 2.2 points of cracking the top 40. After Scherzer, it could be a long time before we see a stronger candidate than Sale.

Jacob deGrom

A late bloomer who didn’t reach the majors until about five weeks before his 26th birthday, deGrom banked back-to-back Cy Young awards in 2018–19, but made just 47 starts over the next five seasons due to the coronavirus pandemic, a forearm strain, a stress reaction in his scapula, and his second Tommy John surgery (he had his first while in college). He was very good last year, going 12-8 with a 2.97 ERA, 185 strikeouts, and 3.0 WAR, but after an eight-run, five-walk shellacking by the White Sox on Wednesday — which cost him 0.7 WAR — deGrom is now 9-9 with a 4.21 ERA, 159 strikeouts, and 1.4 WAR this year, his age-38 season.

While deGrom’s career totals of 1,670 innings, 105 wins, and 2,010 strikeouts are paltry by the standards of enshrined starting pitchers, he’s banked both his 100th win and 2,000th strikeout this season. He’s somewhere between this generation’s version of Sandy Koufax or Johan Santana, a pitcher whose dominance during his short career — including a 144 ERA+ and a 29.4% strikeout rate — might either be viewed by voters as worthy of enshrinement or in danger of slipping through the cracks. He made his fifth All-Star team last season, and though he hasn’t been as dominant this year, even padding his career totals with a slightly above-average performance improves his odds. I’d be lying if I said I was fully sold, but his S-JAWS (which ranks just 95th) has already surpassed those of Koufax and Felíx Hernández, with Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (45.5) on the horizon. We’ll see what happens if he stays healthy.

Zack Wheeler

Just over a year ago, Wheeler landed on the injured list due to a blood clot in his shoulder, and was soon diagnosed as suffering from veinous thoracic outlet syndrome. Season-ending surgery not only prevented him from pitching in the postseason, but also threatened his career. Fortunately, since returning to action in late April, he’s pitched quite well, posting a 3.48 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, and a 29.7% strikeout rate in 124 1/3 innings. While he’s short of qualifying for the ERA title this season, his 3.8 WAR ranks eighth in the league.

With just 123 wins and 1,988 strikeouts late in his age-36 season, Wheeler barely shows up on the ZiPS milestone radar (he has a 2% chance of reaching 200 wins), and his S-JAWS is just an eyelash ahead of Cole’s. Where he really stands out is in WAR; he’s led the NL twice, with additional finishes of third, fifth, and seventh (twice). In the rolling seven-year WAR calculations popularized by MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, which tend to be dominated by future Hall of Famers, Wheeler edges Cole for the lead across the 2018–24 span by one win (32.6 to 31.6), and additionally owns a 34.1–26.7 edge over Max Fried for 2019–25, and a 34.7–26.5 edge (so far) over Fried for 2020–26. If the season ended today, he’d have a 31.9–24.0 lead over Logan Webb for the 2021–27 span. While Wheeler previously said he would retire after the 2027 season, once his current three-year, $126 million extension expires, he’s reportedly reconsidering that stance. From a Hall standpoint, it may very well be worth his while.

Gerrit Cole

After being limited to 17 starts in 2024 due to nerve inflammation and edema in his elbow, Cole missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. He’s had some ups and downs since returning in late May, but thus far his 3.11 ERA and 3.29 FIP aren’t far removed from his career marks (both 3.17), and his 26.6% strikeout rate is still good enough to crack the AL’s top 10 among pitchers with at least 90 innings. His current S-JAWS is nothing to write home about, but he’s currently at 2.5 WAR on the year, 0.2 WAR away from this being one of his peak seasons, and considering he has another 2.6-WAR season within his best seven, he could still advance substantially. Couple that possibility with his reasonable shots at 200 wins (he has 160, and a major league-high 48% of reaching the milestone according to ZiPS) and 3,000 strikeouts (he has 2,351, with a 23% chance via ZiPS) and it’s not hard to see him as the pitcher with the next-best shot at Cooperstown after Sale.

Kenley Jansen

Admittedly, it hasn’t been a very good season for Jansen, who’s posted a 4.08 ERA and converted just 17 of 22 save chances for the underachieving Tigers. However, thanks to the staying power of his cut fastball — which was still the third-most valuable in the game according to Statcast just a year ago — he’s been productive enough in recent years to put significant daylight between himself and Craig Kimbrel, to the point that he’s made his case as the best reliever outside the Hall. Having surpassed Lee Smith’s total of 478 saves earlier this season, Jansen is now third all-time in that category with 493, behind only Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, and seventh in R-JAWS behind six Hall of Famers, including 2025 inductee Billy Wagner. His shot at election may well depend upon voters’ appetites to anoint not just him but also Kimbrel and Chapman, all of whom have had long stretches of dominance but various dings that make them less-than-automatic choices.

Aroldis Chapman

Chapman in particular comes with significant baggage, most notably a 30-game suspension in 2016 for violating the game’s domestic violence policy. His tenure with the Yankees came to an ugly end in 2022, when after a career-worst season that included time missed for an infected tattoo and the loss of his job as their closer, he skipped a mandatory workout ahead of the Division Series and was left off the roster. Since then, Chapman has worked his way back to his employers’ good graces by pitching for four different teams; over the last two seasons with the Red Sox, he’s been just about as dominant as ever, with a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves in 2025, a 1.81 ERA and 30 saves this season, and All-Star selections for both campaigns, running his career total to nine. He’s ninth in saves (397) and 11th in R-JAWS, with the momentum to keep climbing in both categories.

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt surpassed both the 2,000-hit mark and the JAWS standard for first basemen while with the Cardinals in 2024, the same year that his collapse against right-handed pitching began. He’s had ample chance to reverse that slide, but with the emergence of Ben Rice as the Yankees’ best hitter this side of Aaron Judge, Goldschmidt has been eased into a platoon role, though at times he’s been overexposed due to the team’s rash of injuries. Still, he’s handled the role change with grace — notably taking a pay cut from $12.5 million to $4 million plus incentives to re-sign with the Yankees — and even thrived at times. His career totals of 2,265 hits and 388 home runs are both ahead of the marks of Joey Votto, whom he’s on the verge of passing in JAWS. With Votto likely to sail into Cooperstown on the 2029 ballot, his coattails could help the unconvinced when Goldschmidt hits the ballot.

Freddie Freeman

Though he recently went a carer-high 18 games without an extra-base hit, Steady Freddie is in the midst of a very solid season, hitting .299/.371/.458 (130 wRC+) with 15 homers. He made his 10th All-Star team and blew past the 2,500-hit mark; with 2,576 and counting, he’s got an estimated 68% chance of reaching 3,000, higher than any other active player and well-ahead of the second-most likely Bobby Witt Jr. (40%). Freeman also has 382 home runs, with an 18% shot at reaching 500. He’s not quite a member of the 40.0-WAR peak club, but he’s 0.1 point away from matching the JAWS standard among first basemen. On top of that, his postseason résumé includes three World Series rings and status as the only player with two World Series walk-off home runs. He’s on his way.

Matt Olson

Freeman left massive shoes to fill in Atlanta, and Olson has done an exceptional job, making three All-Star teams in five seasons, leading the league in home runs, RBI, and slugging percentage in 2023, and not missing a single game since May 1, 2021. His streak of consecutive games is at 913 and counting, the eighth longest in major league history. He’s got 324 home runs, including 36 this season (second in the NL), with a median projection of 451 and a 31% chance of reaching 500. He’s also got a collection of Gold Gloves, with three and counting; his 7 FRV leads the majors at his position, while his 4 DRS is tied for eighth. He’s in the midst of his fifth-best season by WAR, and has two others of 3.9 and 4.0 WAR, leaving him room to grow into the 40-WAR peak club. There’s still work to do, but if he can remain productive, he’s got a real shot.

Nolan Arenado

He’s more than a year older than both Machado and Ramírez, and trails both in JAWS, but the big deal here is that he passed the 2,000-hit mark on July 20. While his first season with the Diamondbacks hasn’t been remarkable, his current 105 wRC+ (on .237/.315/.435 line) represents a 21-point rebound from last year, and his 21 home runs are his most since 2023, pushing his career total to 374. He’s unlikely to add to his impressive collection of 10 Gold Gloves, but he still plays a pretty mean third base, and I suspect that his combination of 400ish homers and his defensive value (currently 168 runs above average, fifth behind Brooks Robinson, Adrian Beltré, Scott Rolen, and Buddy Bell) will carry the day, whether or not he reaches the JAWS standard.

Alex Bregman

Even after he put up seasons of 7.6 WAR in 2018 and a league-high 8.9 WAR in ’19 — with totals of 31 and 41 home runs that he hasn’t approached since — Bregman has never made a strong showing on my radar because hasn’t produced another 5-WAR season, though he’s had three between 4.0 and 4.9. In his first year with the Cubs, despite a slow start and a modest .254/.343/.415 (113 wRC+) batting line, he has a shot to reach that elusive 5.0-WAR mark, thanks largely to exceptional defense in the form of a career-high 12 DRS (second among all third basemen) and 6 FRV (first). His 47.1 WAR through his age-32 season ranks 22nd among third basemen, within one win of Hall of Famers John McGraw (who’s in as a manager) and Paul Molitor and non-Hall of Famers Robin Ventura and Graig Nettles, but that still leaves him about 8 WAR behind Rolen, 11 behind Beltré, and nearly 15 behind the fast-starting Machado. Bregman will need exceptional staying power to have a convincing case.

Kyle Schwarber

WAR and JAWS don’t make any kind of good case for Schwarber, whose defense in left field took big bites out of his value in his first two seasons in Philadelphia. His only season of more than 3.5 WAR was last year’s 4.6, but three of his four most valuable seasons — the last three — have been ones where he’s largely stowed his glove away and stuck to DH duty.

Schwarber already has two home run titles and may win a third this year; he’s got a three-homer lead on Olson, 39-36. He has 379 career homers, with ZiPS give him not only a 52% chance of reaching 500, but also an 11% chance of reaching 600. Throw in a postseason résumé that includes 23 homers to go with .234/.361/.545 line and you have… well, I don’t exactly know what you have. The poor man’s Stanton? A first-division Adam Dunn? I suspect that if Schwarber gets to 500 home runs, the vibes will carry the day, because he’s one of the most entertaining sluggers around.

Mike Trout

Trout is entrenched at no. 5 in JAWS among center fielders, about nine points above Ken Griffey Jr. and nine below Mickey Mantle, so there’s not a lot at stake here, but prior to 2025–26, you had to dial back to ’18–19 to find back-to-back seasons in which Trout played at least 100 games. While his .242/.383/.436 line is far below his career standard, his 131 wRC+ is still good for 11th in the AL, and what’s more, his 3.7 WAR is his highest total since 2022, even with -8 DRS in center field. He’s got 146 hits to go to reach 2,000, and 76 homers to reach 500; ZiPS projects him to finish at 497 in the latter category and gives him a 47% chance of making it to the milestone. Milestones aren’t going to make or break his Hall of Fame case, of course, but we shouldn’t take for granted this chance to see an all-time great still playing well.

Mookie Betts

The only active player with four World Series wins, Betts is eighth in JAWS among right fielders, with the fifth-highest peak score behind Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Henry Aaron, and Judge. He’s made a remarkable transition to shortstop mid-career, and has put in enough work on the defensive side to be well above average (17 DRS last year, 7 DRS this year). That’s given him a solid floor, value-wise, even as his bat has faded and his body has struggled to withstand the rigors of his position. He’s hitting just .236/.293/.404 (90 wRC+) — career lows across the board and well behind his Statcast expected numbers — but the fact that he’s having a better season than any of the shortstops in the previous installment shouldn’t be obscured. This guy is a Hall of Famer.

Bryce Harper

I don’t want to jinx anything, but Harper has played every Phillies game thus far and has a shot at his highest total since 2019 (157). What’s more, he’s hit .265/.384/.499 for a 140 wRC+, just a point below his career standard. The big milestones of 2,000 hits and 400 homers will have to wait ’til next year; he has 1,924 of the former and 389 of the latter, with a similar ZiPS projection to Trout (495 homers, with a 45% chance of reaching 500). Unlike Trout, Harper is still several points from the JAWS standard at his position — to which he recently returned after the Phillies’ deadline-fueled infield reshuffle – but he has a reasonable shot of chipping into his peak score, which is still short of 40.0. To an even greater degree than Schwarber, stellar postseason numbers (.274/.390/.596 with 17 homers) and entertainment value are going to help put him over the top. And that’s before we even consider his two MVP awards and nine All-Star selections.

Shohei Ohtani

Inflammation in Ohtani’s left knee led the Dodgers to shut him down from pitching in early July, at a point when even with some hits falling in he’d managed a 1.79 ERA and a 2.60 FIP in 85 2/3 innings. Reportedly, he’s close to a return, albeit a limited one that will see him used as an opener while he rebuilds his pitch count, à la his 2025 rehab from his second UCL reconstruction. He’s at 3.0 WAR and counting in that department.

Meanwhile, various aches, pains, and mini-slumps have led to a drop in power that has cost Ohtani 76 points of slugging percentage and 22 points of wRC+. He’s at .287/.388/.546 with 30 homers and a 151 wRC+, pretty great by the standards of mere mortals, though it likely won’t garner him a fourth straight (and fifth overall) MVP award. At the end of the day, despite the fact that he’s only in his ninth season and has no two-way standard against which we can compare him, his 57.2 JAWS is higher than anyone active except for Trout, Betts, and Judge. Oh, and according to ZiPS, he’s got odds of 65% to reach 500 homers, 38% to reach 600, and 8% to reach 700. Remarkable.

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