The 2026 Replacement-Level Killers: Introduction & Catcher

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing meager production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement-level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is generally in the ballpark, though my final lists also incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which may nose them over the line. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that have Playoff Odds of at least 10%; the Padres (48-48 with 11.7% odds) form the lower boundary of the 22 teams under consideration this year, up from 21 last year and 20 in 2024. While I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature.

This first installment will cover catchers. All statistics within this piece are through July 12 unless otherwise noted. Note that the individual stats cited may include those compiled during time at other positions, but that the ones in the table are limited to player performances at the given position.

White Sox

I covered this one a couple of weeks ago in my roundup of the worst defenses among contenders. Kyle Teel did a very solid job as a rookie last year, producing 1.9 WAR in 78 games (61 behind the plate), but he missed the first two months of this season due to a Grade 2 right hamstring strain and then an LCL sprain in his right knee. In his absence, Edgar Quero did the bulk of the work, making 40 starts, but he hit an anemic .187/.253/.233 (37 wRC+) while struggling defensively; he was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte when Teel returned in late June. Teel has yet to get going, hitting .204/.295/.333 (79 wRC+) in 61 plate appearances so far, though to be fair, he’s lagged behind his expected stats (.224 xBA, .373 xSLG) within that limited footprint. Backup Drew Romo has hit just .133/.227/.314 (50 WRC+) in 120 plate appearances, which just won’t cut it when the starter isn’t producing, either.

With the White Sox aspiring to reach the playoffs just two years after setting a single-season record with 121 losses, this is a situation where a pending free agent such as the Twins’ Ryan Jeffers — generally considered the top catcher on the market, if Minnesota (48-49, 33.9% Playoff Odds) is selling — would be ideal. He wouldn’t block the long-term development of Teel, who’s still just 24 years old and entered last season as a 50-FV prospect. The Twins aren’t guaranteed sellers, though, and even if they are, they’ll have plenty of suitors and may prefer not to deal within the division. But barring a big acquisition such as Jeffries, even an upgrade on Romo or Quero would be a real plus.

Astros

Christian Vázquez is approaching his 36th birthday and appears to be on his way to his fourth consecutive season with a wRC+ below 75 and a WAR below 1.0. At this writing, he’s hitting .220/.277/.341 (71 wRC+) — and that’s well ahead of his expected stats — with average-ish defense, and so he’s netted 0.0 WAR. Backup Yainer Diaz has been a bit better than Vázquez at the plate (.248/.276/.412, 88 wRC+) but has been dreadful defensively (-6 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) en route to 0.0 WAR, as well.

At 47-51, the Astros are somehow just two games out of first in the AL West, and 1.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot, albeit with the Mariners and Twins (who at 48-49 are tied for the spot) and Red Sox (who are 46-48 and half a game behind them) ahead of them in the latter race. Will Bush, a 22-year-old 40-FV prospect who’s hitting .268/.401/.455 (130 wRC+) at Double-A Corpus Christi, probably isn’t the answer given his 32.2% strikeout rate, subpar defensive grades (30 PV/40 FV at the outset of the season), and lack of Triple-A experience, so the Astros will need to go outside the organization if they’re to shore up this position. Houston is a team for whom it could make sense to pursue the Rockies’ Hunter Goodman, who himself has strikeout issues but also power that will play outside of Coors Field, as well as three years of club control after this one. However, the latest report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale is that the Rockies plan to keep Goodman, so they’d probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move him.

Braves

The combination of Drake Baldwin’s oblique strain and the Braves’ desire not to overwork him behind the plate has limited the reigning NL Rookie of the Year to 44 starts at catcher, where he’s netted 1.0 WAR. Seven different backups, including Sean Murphy — who has made just four starts between his recovery from hip labrum surgery and a fractured left middle finger — have offset that with -1.0 WAR, in part by hitting a collective .152/.190/.250 (17 wRC+). Joey Bart is the one currently on the roster, and while he hasn’t done much with Atlanta, he’s hit a combined .251/.337/.395 (105 wRC+) in 710 plate appearances since the start of 2024; even with slightly subpar defense, he should be a competent complement for Baldwin. As the team’s projection for a combined 1.4 WAR over the rest of the season suggests, this probably isn’t an urgent situation, particularly relative to some of the other teams here.

Rangers

In years past, Kyle Higashioka has generally provided good enough power and solid enough defense to offset his low on-base percentage, particularly when paired with a decent second catcher. This year, he’s hitting a fairly typical .220/.299/.371 (90 wRC+) with seven homers in 177 plate appearances, accompanied by a trifecta of below-average defensive metrics (-3 FRV, -2 DRS, -1.2 FRM). Backup Danny Jansen has hit just .171/.277/.309 (69 wRC+) and has been sidelined since June 3 due to a forearm strain, but while Elias Díaz, whom they signed to replace him, has hit a comparatively robust .267/.280/.467 (102 wRC+) between Kansas City and Texas, that’s over just 93 plate appearances. He owns a career 79 wRC+, and he put up a 74 wRC+ with the Padres last year, so he hardly can be counted on to maintain his current level.

While Higashioka — who’s making $6.75 million this year and has a $1 million buyout on a $7 million mutual option for next year — has been mentioned as a trade candidate if the Rangers decide to sell, they currently lead the division at 49-47. Díaz and Jansen aren’t a strong enough tandem to rely upon if they move Higashioka, so they’d have to target an incremental upgrade.

Phillies

J.T. Realmuto is a three-time All-Star and a two-time Gold Glove winner, but he last received either of those accolades in 2022. He’s now 35 years old and hitting .206/.288/.346 (76 wRC+), having failed to reach a 100 wRC+ in any calendar month so far, and he’s also slipped into the red defensively. The Phillies are currently carrying two backups, but neither Garrett Stubbs (.179/.250/.179 in just 32 PA) nor Rafael Marchán (.106/.146/.176 in 106 PA) has done anything to suggest they’re true alternatives, even with the latter’s exceptional glovework (6 FRV, 5 DRS, 2.8 FRM). What’s more, Realmuto is signed for another two seasons at $15 million apiece, so he’s basically immovable. But he needs better support.

Yankees

Austin Wells was a three-win player in both 2024 and ’25. Even while slipping from a .229/.322/.395 (107 wRC+) batting line in 2024 to .219/.275/.436 (94 wRC+) last season, he combined solid offensive performances with pitch framing worth 10-12 runs, according to both Statcast and our own framing metric. This year, his offense has completely collapsed, as he’s hitting just .155/.247/.258 (42 wRC+) overall and just .129/.182/.210 (8 wRC+) since the start of May. His overall strikeout and chase rates are at career-high levels while his barrel rate and xwOBA are at career lows. His slump may be related to the cervical headaches for which he missed time during the first half of June, but his production hasn’t improved since his return. Not that he’s ever been a centerpiece of the offense, but at a time when the Yankees have been without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and have lacked production at several other spots, the timing of Wells’ slump has been brutal.

Last year, Wells was backed up by Ben Rice (26 starts) and J.C. Escarra (25 starts), but the former is now an All-Star first baseman who ranks second in the AL in homers (29) and has likely caught his last game, while the latter is back at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after hitting .188/.239/.271 (41 wRC+) through 92 plate appearances. Ali Sánchez, who replaced Escarra on the roster and is now catching for his sixth organization in seven seasons, owns a 33 wRC+ for his major league career and obviously isn’t the answer. Nightengale reported that the Yankees “are making it no secret” that they’re interested in landing Goodman, but again, it’s not clear the Rockies are willing to move him.

Red Sox

Three weeks ago, the Red Sox would not have made the cut as a contender; through June 21, they were 31-44 with 8.4% Playoff Odds. They’re a major league-best 15-4 since then and currently riding a nine-game winning streak, so here we are. While starter Carlos Narváez’s defense has been sound enough that he drew mention in my recent piece covering the best team defenses, he’s batted just .188/.257/.266, slipping from last year’s 97 wRC+ to 44, with a strikeout rate that’s spiked from 24.9% to 31.6%. Where he was worth 2.7 WAR last year, he’s down to 0.0 this year. Backup Connor Wong has hit a robust .288/.385/.387 (119 wRC+), and by the metrics, he hasn’t been nearly as bad defensively as he was in 2024 — with double-digit negative values across the board — before being supplanted by Narváez. He’s produced 0.6 WAR, and would seem to offer a solid in-house solution for a team that has other needs if it’s going to salvage what until recently appeared to be a write-off of a season.

In early June, prior to Boston’s current jag, The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey reported that the team — which was also carrying third catcher Mickey Gasper at the time — was particularly shopping Wong. He’s been getting about half the playing time over the past three weeks, and has been very productive in that span, with a 166 wRC+ over 40 plate appearances, but it’s unclear whether the team views him as a key contributor to its rebound or merely someone whose trade value is on the rise. Gasper has just a 50 wRC+ in 252 career plate appearances, so the Red Sox would probably need a better backup if they did move Wong, who could fit the bill for some of the other teams mentioned here.

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