Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/19/2026

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from Tempe, a mild 107 today. Folks are gonna roast here for the Combine next week, bring your long sleeve linens.

Braydon Roberts: Any initial thoughts on Sebastian Dos Santos? He just got a quick promotion like Rainiel Rodriguez last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not doing backflips like I was with Rainiel last year. Frame/tools/skills pretty medium on Dos Santos.

dan norman lear: Not a “prospect” anymore, but any info/sense on Hurston Waldrep?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still bringing the kitchen sink, problematically bad feel for location, 92-97 t98 this year, lots of early-count cutters because of his heater’s vulnerability. Get why they want him to throw this many pitches and try to start but that aint happening.

dan norman lear: Throwing a dart: Assuming no injuries, OD STARTING OF for the 2027 Rockies?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dustin May

Cromulent: I’m cool with The Board as a living breathing thing in lieu of routine Hondo updates but maybe a little more context on movement up or down would be good? I wasn’t sure what/when the Dorian Soto arrow up tracked to for example.

Eric A Longenhagen: When we published Red Sox

Eric A Longenhagen: Dorian Soto – Stats – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Depending on how you set up your player pages you can see the most recent articles that include the player and that’ll always give you the date their grade changed.

Michael: A lot has been written about the potentials of Jacob Lombard but I feel like way less has been written on Eric Booth Jr.    Joe Doyle gives a Trent Grisham comp and thinks he’s safer than Lombard.    can you give more on EBJ and would you go with one over the other?

Eric A Longenhagen: Joe’s great and everyone should follow his stuff. To me, Booth is unique and I wouldn’t comp him to anyone. His swing is whacky but he’s so gifted that it seems to work for him, that was kinda sorta the broad strokes report on then-Trent Clark at the time but I think Booth’s physical tools are more explosive and Clark’s swing was in better position for him to hit for some power than Booth’s is.

gettwobrute79: Is there any chance the Bucs can float Lackey to five?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, can’t imagine him getting past the Twins

Michael Trionfo: Lower in the Yanks org they have some prospects having some nice hitting seasons; Kaeden Kent, Jackson Lovich, Jace Avina, and even lower it seems like Richard Matic and Wilberson De Pena are crushing the ball in the FCL. Any of these guys making any longer impressions for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Matic is starting to put together a pretty solid all-around profile with big physicality and bat speed to the eye, slightly above-average contact data, great power data for his age, and a super patient approach.

Eric A Longenhagen: De Pena I wanna love because it’s big bat speed, but that guy chases a ton. Kent I like as a role player. Matic is the guy with biggity big big ceiling.

baltic wolf: Hi Eric:  Do you think the Orioles will use their first round pick on another bat?  Could it be Drew Burress or another outfielder?  Thx for the chats.

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, just an educated guess because their pattern of behavior has been very consistent.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Better long-term prospect: Ching-Hsien Ko or Kevin Alvarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alvarez, much better feel for contact than Ko.

hofstrascott20: Have you had the chance to see Ramcell Medina at all in the ACL? Either way, how much would you change a scouting report on an 18 year old in the ACL after 100 PA’s of a .223/.309/.266? Somehow hes hitting 50% GB and also 35% IFFB. Is it already over? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not swinging it particularly hard. Wiry-framed infielder, he’s projectable, pretty generic bat speed. Swing could be more athletic, it’s pretty static and strideless at the moment. Over? Nah, but he’s not lighting me up.

sureshot: Is the fantasy top 100 on the board updated as you update the top 100 prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is not.

Person: is “scouting the stat line” on our own really only a problem with good stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can you elaborate on this in another question?

Salty: There’s been many recent questions about Josh Baez with his recent AAA power surge and your cautioning on the expectation of him producing similar stats in the majors.  Would you say that a fair comp for him is Mark Reynolds, someone who consistently K’d over 30% of the time, produced solid power, and had a few seasons north of 110 WRC+?  Or do you think he might struggle to produce something similar to Reynolds?

Eric A Longenhagen: Reynolds is a totally reasonable comp and would basically be the outcome James’ 45+ grade reflects: mostly under 2 WAR per season with a couple bigger years.

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys with hands that fire from a dead stop like Baez’s scare the sh*t out of me.

baltic wolf: Hi Eric:  I’m in a deep (16) points league with 12 keepers.  Have you seen anything special about Cole Carrigg that might indicate he’ll stick in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a crazy athlete, contact rate (esp from the left side) has been waaay better this year. Guy is gonna chase some, he’s volatile, struggles with stuff away from him…

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on your alternatives, honestly. In a league that deep maybe he’s in your mix but I wouldn’t call it a lock.

Domingo Ayala: I know you’re not the fantasy guy but… Five player keeper… I have an offer to give Konnor Griffin to receive Turang, PCA, and secondary pieces. Not just short term, but is this a good long term move?

Eric A Longenhagen: If your roster needs an influx of like 4 or 5 guys, do it.

Cool Lester Smooth: Lombard’s injury is a bummer – doubly so because he’d been really heating up the past few weeks!  Any changes relative to the preseason eval?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing crazy different than last year. His upticks in measureable power (51% hard hit up from 44%, 106 ev90 up from 103, max exits the same at 111) are consistent with the uptick across the minor leagues as a whole, he appears to be more on time to pull the ball this season but still grooved through the down-and-in portion of the strike zone. COntact rate (70%) is below average, reinforcing the visual scouting of his hit tool. Same guy, good player, not a superstar or anything.

smoothio: Tell me about Samad Taylor.  Dude’s been super fun to watch.

Eric A Longenhagen: Speedy high-motor utility journeyman on his fifth or sixth org

Beer:30: Is there a place on the site to compare prospects by grades? Thinking like the leaderboards but with just grades to sort and peruse. Also, anywhere to look at historical comparisons when looking at prospects? Seems the only way to find similar profiles is to sort through player by player on their pages.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like this? The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Renato: Do you think Josue De Paula will develop any defensive value?  And when do you see him hitting the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so, he’s playable but not good out there. I think you’re looking at 40-man roster next year, 2028 when he starts to get regular playing time.

Renato: Ethan Holliday was hitting quite well before getting hurt.  What does his future look like?  MLB.com has him 15th but he is falling down other lists due to injury.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s terrifying, swing is so long. But he also has enormous lefty power for his age and he was doing much better from a bat to ball standpoint this year than last. He’s risky af, has enough ceiling to be on the hondo tho.

RAH: Anthony Nunez fastball seemed to be backing up as the season went along. The slider and change still looked good, but even those had their share of mistakes where they were left in the middle of the zone and hit hard. Do you still see impact reliever upside with Nunez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do but I have been bummed by the way things have trended.

Beer:30: Andrew Fischer led off his AA debut with a bang and sports legitimate power but I can’t get past the 35% strikeout rate and 60% contact rate. Is there hope, or precedent, these can turn around or is he destined to peak in the minors? Not asking for a batting champ but don’t need another Joey Gallo.

Eric A Longenhagen: To be clear: Gallo was awesome. He had enough power to be great despite whiffing that much. Fischer has big juice but not *that* much, not Gallo territory. Even we, who were more apprehensive about where we ranked Fischer before the season, are surprised how much whiffing there has been.

Shirtless George Brett: Any thoughts on the MLB plan to make high schoolers ineligible for the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Soo many. I thought JJ’s article was thorough beyond him just reporting the deets of the proposal. I think it’s a naked attempt to prevent there from being Machado/Harper/Soto type contracts and they’re gonna use the fact that our culture cares about college sports as a magician’s assistant. Can you imagine not having phenom Trout or Griffey? Or Adrian Beltre’s career being altered? I feel like those things are too important to the relevance of our game to scrub away.

tylerjpetrie: Any concern on Elian Pena’s start this year? Or just a young player adjusting to a harder league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Without peeking at his stats, I’d tell you I’m concerned about how stiff his lower half is and what it means for him versus breaking balls.

Neil Baumgarten: Hey Eric – From a 1 to a 10, how would you rank Rob Manford’s hatred of baseball?  I know that opening proposals don’t mean much, but the idea of having to be 20 to be drafted and less rounds would really hurt player development, really screw players, but save the owners millions.  The 1st 2 drafts under this proposal would be pretty barren as well, I assume.  They already killed short season leagues, what’s the endgame here?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are owners who view their player dev operations as expense, and others who view it as investment. The ones who view it as expense (Dick Monfort, for instance) have an outsized voice among the owners. They would like to outsource as much dev as possible to college programs. They think filtering the players through college would mean sifting out the busts (it probably would to some degree, Keoni Cavaco goes to college and K’s too much to go as high as he did) but the players who would have ended up with the orgs who are good at developing don’t get those guys anymore. What happens if Miz ends up at Duke or something, rather than with the Brewers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think Manfred hates baseball, to be clear. His job is to make money for the owners, his bosses.

Eric A Longenhagen: And part of how they try to convince you and me that their aims are for the good of the game is to see how easy we are to manipulate and then attempt to do that. Look at the All Star voting results. Would *you* respect the intelligence of baseball fans? Or would you feel like they’re dupable homers?

smb11488: I feel like a potential international draft would have negative effects on development and quality of international prospects. Where do you think those top prospects would develop from age 16-18? Am I just overrating what happens at a club’s complex during that time period now?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re right to wonder whether what would happen during those couple of seasons if it weren’t happening on the Complex. I also think it’s fair to wonder what goes on now when a verbal deal is reached with 12-13 year olds and then they spend 3-4 years “knowing” they’re gonna get $X and maybe not caring anymore.

Beer:30: Way too early but have you gotten a closeup look at Alexander Frias? Seems the Brewers may have found another international gem.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has some warts (70% contact isn’t great for down here, lotta ground balls right now) but he’s crazy projectable, it feels like he’s getting longer and taller right before our eyes, and I think he has real feel for moving his hands around the zone. I’m really excited about him.

hofstrascott20: But also just curious does 100 ABs in the ACL normally move a scouting report from what you saw in the previous season? Or at any level really? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: It depends on what about the player might light me up during that window. Did I watch a guy for a whole week and come away impressed by his tools and am marrying that with 100 AB worth of data? That’s not a bad recipe with which to draw a conclusion. Some data that benefits from a bigger sample, like contact rate, I’d grade the player knowing there’s a bigger error bar on that stuff than if he had 700 PA.

ADoctolero: I know that the sample is small, but how surprised/impressed are you by Bryce Eldridge’s command of the strike zone since being called up? I was fully prepared to watch him strike out a lot in exchange for dingers, but I did not have a K rate under 20% on my bingo card.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s kinda crazy. It’s so much different than his historical contact rate that I have to believe he’ll eventually regress. Not to the point where he’s bad (we love him, we stuffed him) but to the point where he’s a 67-70% contact guy, give or take

rdf8585: What do we make of Owen Ayers and his breakout season? Hard to gauge what the long-term upside is, but would love to hear your thoughts.

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig him. Lots of late-bloomer traits, real big league frame ad athleticism, sniper’s arm, good power for a catcher. Nice pull by the Cubs.

matt: When will we get movement on guys like hartman on the board?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll crosscheck the contending teams’ lists in the coming weeks. I have to update my draft board first but I’d expect updates to Cleveland, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, etc. with coinciding pieces to start running before the end of this month and all through July.

Eminor3rd: I think we may see both Hiroto Saiki and Teruaki Sato posted this offseason if the Tigers win another one. Any latest thoughts on either?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing new beyond agreeing with you that those arms names I’m told MLB folks have gone over there to scout.

crzy_guy: Any thoughts on MLB’s proposal? Seems terrible for the minors + reducing the bonus pool really will make it difficult to attract athletic multisport athletes.

Eric A Longenhagen: The multi-sport athlete point is sound. A reason some of the multi-sport guys pick baseball is because they can turn pro right away. Now you just lose that guy to football because the NIL money in college football is way bigger and better (pending the legislation being championed by the current administration)

BirdsFan: Appreciate the knowledge and you time.  Was excited to see SGF OF Jonah Cox come up.  Limited ABs so far.  , a dude or just a guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can really play CF and he’s developed more pop than I thought when he first entered pro ball. His swing is still super long and he’s poking an inordinate amount of his contact to right, he’s also very chase prone. I think Brendan nailed his grade, he’s a nice piece but I’d be surprised if he were an average or better everyday CF for an extended stretch.

Fangraphs Man: Colson Montgomery now has 5.7 fWAR and 41 dingers in his 141 game MLB career. Looking back at the report you and James had last year and… man I can’t believe this actually worked out (no slight to your writeup at all, he was very clearly in ‘freefall’ as you guys termed it)

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, me too. Guys who suddenly fall apart to the degree he did almost never bounce back.

Beer:30: High School phenoms are as prominent in baseball culture as hot dogs and beer. Can’t imagine them not having a place.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s one thing baseball has over the other sports, especially now that basketball forces kids to college.

Pat Listachio: You did an awesome pod years ago about different sports’ analytics. I don’t recall any of them being hockey, though. Do you know of any resources that would contain a good distillation of hockey analytics, luck, sample sizes, etc? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t but now that I’m recovering emotionally from the Coyotes going out for a pack of cigarettes and never coming back, maybe it’s time to see if the Flyers will take me back and brush up on that stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay friends, keeping it tight to the hour today. I’m gonna get back to my Rays list, as it’s a doozy and I have tons of injury dope to run down on these guys. Talk to you all next week when we’ll have finished all 30 lists a month ahead of last year’s pace despite hiring Beeg at the end of November. Yay!