Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/26/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! I hope you all enjoyed the three-day weekend.

Jay Jaffe: I flew solo while my wife and daughter drove upstate to visit my father-in-law (I had to stay behind to dog-sit). Did a lot of dad-puttering around the house, some repair projects, some yardwork, and a trek to Jersey City to see the 50th-anniversary celebration — and perhaps the final show ever — of The Feelies.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, back to baseball. Before we get started, I need to note that as with last week, we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. This is still something we’re evaluationg. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

John Tereniak: Would Phils have been better off signing Machado than Harper when they were looking at both way back when?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I’m not sure. Yes, it’s harder to come up with a great third baseman, and the Phillies have had their problems there since then (Alec Bohm has had one season above 2.0 WAR) but I think Harper was the better fit for the city and the culture, as Machado has been for the city and culture in San Diego

Jay Jaffe: the two are almost dead even in fWAR 27.9 to 27.7 for Harper, and that’s with an additional 107 games missed due to injuries

Dennis Brown: who do you expect to be more productive rest of season between the slow-starting injury returnee Ha-Seong Kim and the surprise break out (now also slowing down) Ildemaro Vargas?

Jay Jaffe: it probably comes down to whether you’re considering defense or not. Kim is the much better defender playing a key position, and even if he doesn’t hit for a 100 wRC+, he can still be an above-average player. Vargas, who has produced just a 54 wRC+ in May after a 204 wRC+ in April, plays all around the diamond at less demanding positions. He *might* outhit Kim the rest of the way if he can adjust to the adjustments made against him, but even that’s not a guarantee.

Jeremy Fox: Can Wheeler win Comeback Player of the Year, given that he didn’t miss all that much time at the end of last season or the start of this season?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there are any hard-and-fast rules about qualifying for Comeback Player of the Year honors. As with Manager of the Year, it’s driven a lot by narrative, and it’s given out by MLB, not the BBWAA, so there’s less transparency (we don’t even get to see voting results). Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery is pretty serious, and Wheeler has ben brilliant so far (1.67 ERA in 6 starts). But mostly i think it will come down to the competition — is his story more compelling than an alternative candidate?

mragbayani: Is the only thing that could keep Soto and Lindor from Cooperstown the 24 guys they share a locker room with?

Jay Jaffe: Well, recent voting history says that getting caught up in a PED scandal would be the biggest roadblock for any HOF candidate, not that i think either of these guys are involved in such drugs. Lindor is already at 49.2 JAWS and is ranked 19th among shortstops — he’s done most of the heavy lifting.

Jay Jaffe: Soto, by contrast, is 34th among right fielders and while his ceiling is higher and he’s younger, he’s got a longer way to go. I don’t think the success of the Mets while they’re both in Queens is going to determine whether or not they get into Cooperstown. It’s going to be whether they stay healthy and productive.

Schwartz: It feels like there’s more focus on teams having a bad start to the season (BoSox, Mets, Astros, Philly) than in previous years. Is that because these teams were more highly-rated pre-season? Or is it something else?

Jay Jaffe: Firing your manager is one way to put focus on your bad start, and both the Red Sox and Phillies did that. The Astros have been perennial contenders but now it looks as though they’ve reached the tipping point for falling apart due to attrition and injuries. So there’s gonna be focus there. Boston aside — and I think we really need to lower our expectations for that franchise’s aspirations in the post-Mookie era — the other three teams are in three of the country’s five largest media markets so it’s not surprising they get so much attention.

war2d2: Hi Jay! Last week I complained about the Cubs’ incompetence with RISP and then later that day they went 1/8 with RISP and stranded 7 runners. I’ve been a Cubs fan most of my life and aside from the slide at the end of 2004 I can’t remember another time I felt this bad about a team that was supposed to be good. Just utterly demoralizing.

Jay Jaffe: When I checked in on the Padres last week I noted that they had the majors’ second-largest differential between their wRC+ with runners in scoring position vs. bases empty, and the Cubs were dead last in that category. I haven’t gone back to evaluate how sustainable either is but it does seem kinda fluky. I get that it’s frustrating, and sticks out like a sore thumb, but I don’t know  that it’s a permanent affliction.

JustinPBG: It could always change but Cam vs Nolan is starting to feel a bit like Judge vs Conforto (I distinctly remember the latter being projected much more highly in April 2017 FG chats!)

Jay Jaffe: The Judge-Conforto comp doesn’t make much sense to me given that c. 2017 the former was a prospect and the latter had about a full season under his belt, with a good 2015 and a meh 2016. Judge ranked higher on BA’s 2015 prospect list (53 vs. 80) and had much louder tools. Other than forcing it into a New York vs. New York comparison — which, sure, I get — it doesn’t seem like much of a contest.

Jay Jaffe: As for Schittler vs. McLean, both made very big leaps last year — neither was on our preseason Top 100. Schlittler, in particular, has found an extra gear and is just overpowering now. McLean is taking his lumps. I think people take for granted how well the Yankees have done at developing starting pitching in recent years.

sharajr: What do you think Carlos Delgado’s odds of getting to the HOF are? He was really close in the last committee vote. (Also – what are your thoughts about trying to elevate/appreciate non-PED players if voters are also going to punish PED users?)

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the thing: Ted Simmons is still the only one-and-done guy to get elected via a Veterans or Era Committee, so the odds are still very long for another candidate to go that route. Yes, if the Hall is juicing the committees to the point that they’re picking voters who will elevate subpar non-PED candidates while trying to humiliate the PED-linked ones, maybe that improves the odds of someone like Delgado but the bottom line is that his election would make even less sense than those of Dale Murphy or even Don Mattingly because — while he had tremendous power and better longevity — he wasn’t nearly the all-around player either of them was.

ankoalec: If Detroit’s rotation is ever fully healthy this season with Skubal and Verlander, is there a legitimate chance that Flaherty gets released? He’s been a painful watch, and if the team is seriously trying to turnaround the season having him start every fifth day over, say, Montero or Melton feels like malpractice (maybe it ends up being a moot point if they sell, though)

Jay Jaffe: We’ve seen Flaherty go through ups and downs before. he’s obviously not pitching well right now, but it’s more likely he’s somebody else’s fix-it target or dead money offset than an outright release. I suspect that once Skubal and Verlander return, they’ll have Flaherty try to work out whatever’s going on while pitching out of the bullpen.

Hazmat Corntail: Does the Statcast optimism on Mookie Betts do anything to outweigh the dreadful surface numbers thus far?

Jay Jaffe: yes, i think so. His 90.8-mph average exit velocity is his highest since 2023, and likewise for his 10% barrel rate. He’s got an xBA of .257, just 10 points below last year, and an xSLG of .442, 20 points ahead of last year. Plus he’s squaring the ball up more frequently. Might have to make small adjustments but I expect him to rebound.

Grega: How much of an impact do hitting coaches really have?  Manny, Merrill, and Fernando were doing okay last year.  This year they’ve been sleepwalking.  Nothing against the guy, but Stephen Souza Jr has no experience coaching and can’t seem to snap these guys out of it.  On the other hand, Gavin Sheets is reaching new heights. Is a change in order or have Manny, Merrill, and Fernando, simply timed out?

Jay Jaffe: Particularly  in the era of the launch angle revolution, I think we’ve seen that hitting coaches can make a tremendous difference, which is not to say that every one of them does. I do wonder when a new hitting coach comes in alongside a new manager and tries to instill a different philosophy or has to connect with players who were doing just fine — a situation that describes the Padres and Souza and also the Giants (who have  stopped walking) and Hunter Mense

Jay Jaffe: on the subject of Tatis, Will Carrol wrote about the possibility of the way Tatis’ swing has flattened out being linked to his history of left shoulder problems https://substack.com/home/post/p-198942008

Jay Jaffe: And he was basing that on a piece that old friend Travis Sawchik wrote about Tatis for Driveline (https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2026/05/fernando-tatis-jr-no-home-ru…). Haven’t gotten to that one yet but I think both are worth a look.

Charles Bengal Tiger: Is this homer-less season strike 3 for Tatis Jr.’s HOF hopes?

Jay Jaffe: i don’t expect him to go homerless but I also don’t expect to change my evaluation of his Hall of Fame chances until any PED-suspended player gets elected. I don’t see him being the guy who breaks decades of precedent.

bubbles: Beyind Skenes, what pitcher under 25 do you feel has the best shot at Cooperstown? Misorowski?

Jay Jaffe: maybe Mis or Schlittler but a) neither has completed a full season in the majors yet; and b) both are going to face the consequences of their consistently high velocity at some point, and likely have to reinvent themselves to a degree. Particularly at a itme when no starting pitcher under age 37 projects as more likely than not to make it to the Hall, let’s not put all that weight on their shoulders — and elbows.

leoneforthird: So do the Mainers fire Dan Wilson with the team underperforming?  It was hard to justify when team was winning but he continues to make a series of baffling choices on a weekly basis.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s in trouble but I also think that even having your team within 3 games of .500 while last year’s 9-win player has given you next to nothing and is now injured is somewhat miraculous. I’d be surprised if the Mariners make a move before seeing  the impact of a healthy Raleigh

dirtypuer: So are the Giants just doomed or is there a way to get off of Chapman/Adames/Devers without eating a bunch of the money?

Jay Jaffe: Open wide. No, wider. No, even wider….

Jay Jaffe: Somebody compared Buster Posey’s POBO to Isiah Thomas’ tenure running the Knicks, as in an all-time great player becoming an executive but having no clear plan as to how to build a winner. Posey reversing course so soon after taking on all that big money is going to look ridiculous. So will having to fire his jumped-from-college coach.

dan999999: Had to log in to join the chat (I get you want to encourage people to log in so fair enough) but it took me update my profile and I had to poke a round a bit to get back to a random fangraph page before I could navigate to the chat.

Jay Jaffe: Apologies for the inconvenience, but welcome back!

cosmichero: At what point are we ready to call the Nats just a top 5-10 offense going forward? this is a decent sample, but they’re getting production from a lot of unexpected places

Jay Jaffe: They lead the majors in scoring and are fourth in wRC+ one-third of the way through the season. I don’t think you can avoid calling them a top-five offense right now, and I’ll note that they too are doing this under a new hitting coach who came in as part of a new regime, Matt Borgschulte. Everybody who’s taken at least 100 PA for them except Nasim Nuñez has a wRC+ of 90 or higher, that’s pretty damn impressive

RedsManRick: At what point do the Reds move on from Matt McLain? The BABIP leaves me hopeful. But he’s been a real painful watch since coming back last year.

Jay Jaffe: He’s now almost 200 games into a wRC+ in the 70s, and we’re two months into the season, so I have to think we’re getting close to the point where a change is on the table. The best near-term alternative from inside the organization appears to be Edward Arroyo, who’s been tearing it up at Triple-A and has been playing second base as well as shortstop.. but he’s also been dabbling at third base, where Ke’Bryan Hayes has been even worse, and is now injured. Since the Reds do have Eugenio Suarez as a 3B option, I suspect we’ll see Arroyo at second sometime in the next month, and if they don’t like what they see yet, they’ll trade for someone short-term.

ImKeithHernandez: I despise the idea of Ohtani giving up pitching (or hitting!). Do you think that his less-than-Ohtani-like offense so far is due to his pitching this year? Or is it a small sample size? I look at his 180 wRC+ and 132 IP in 2023 for comfort.

Jay Jaffe: It has seemed as though Ohtani has been more focused on pitching, and he’s dealing with the extra workload and physical effects of double duty to the point that he’s sometimes not hitting on days he pitches. I expect some positive regression on the offensive side — he’s been trying to make some mechanical tweaks — just as I expect some negative regression on the pitching side.

Take the over on both his 147 wRC+ and his 0.73 ERA, but damn it, be thankful we get to watch a guy who can do both, even for a couple months at a time.

Jolie: Was last year a dead cat bounce for Springer or is there still some 2025 life in the bat?

Jay Jaffe: Well, I don’t expect to see him post a166 wRC+ again. he’s a guy who always seems to be dealing with physical stuff, and i suspect his struggles now have a lot to do with his left big toe, which he fractured via a HBP on April 11 and then aggravated when he was hit again a few weeks later. That’s gonna cause problems.

Grandpaboy: The Cubs desperately need SP help. What would Shaw fetch?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not enough to justify trading him at a time when he’s netted zero WAR.

Daniel F: How do you feel personally about combined no hitters? Obviously less of an impressive individual accomplishment, but it seems commonplace now to pooh-pooh the team accomplishment entirely

Jay Jaffe: I take note of them but don’t get wound up by them unless there are particularly compelling reasons — the World Series one from 2022, for example. Yesterday’s being closed out by a kid (Alimber Santa) making his major league debut was sort of interesting, but I somehow missed it all

Siddharth Nair: Howdy Jay, combined no hitter for the ‘Stros went crazy yesterday great to watch for me. My question is regarding Altuve’s 3000 chance, with the injury he’s sustained I’m assuming his chances of getting there are gone unless he and the Astros are fine with him just extending it out, scuffling at the end of the lineup to get hits at the end of his career?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think they’re gone yet — he needs “only” 572 — but once he returns he’s going to have to hit better than .245 or even last year’s .265 to really make up lost ground. A Biggio-like slog to 3,000 probably isn’t out of the question, but we’ll see where he is when his contract expires after 2029.

theonlynolan: As a Mets fan can we run David Stearns out of town yet? Really seems like this guy is not good at what he does

Jay Jaffe: The Mets aren’t in a very good spot right now but given his success in Milwaukee, Stearns’ overall track record is stronger than, say, Steve Cohen’s track record as an owner.

Jay Jaffe: Right now most of Stearns’ big decisions for 2026 aren’t looking so hot, I get it, but teams have coveted guys like Luis Robert Jr. and Bo Bichette and so it’s not as though every choice he made was a reach.

comfreyheals: If Skubal comes back even close to his old self and Detroit is double digit games back of a WC, how many top 100ish prospects does a rental Tarik bring them?

Jay Jaffe: At most two, I think — if he’s dominating and if the Tigers are set on dealing him — but we’re not talking like two top-10 prospects, it would be guys who at least made the list.

JCCfromDC: It’s been fun to watch the Nats not be terrible for a while. Along with that, a question: is Curtis Mead a player (not a DUDE, let’s not get crazy)? Former failed prospect, now hitting 141 OPS+/140 wRC+, and some of his under-the-hood peripherals are good. There’s a lot of red on his statcast page. SSS mirage or is he a “change of scenery” payoff?

Jay Jaffe: Calling a 25-year-old who’s never played 100 major league games in a season “a former failed prospect” is kinda ridiculous. It can take some players longer to adapt to the majors than others —not getting regular playing time is certainly a factor. he’s getting it now, and things are working.

Jay Jaffe: So yeah I guess I’d call him a change-of-scenery payoff but there was always an expectation that he would hit

war2d2: Baumann just posted on Bluesky: “The most interesting thing with Craig Kimbrel is the issue of whether it’s possible for someone to play his way out of the Hall of Fame. He was at least as good as Mariano Rivera for almost a decade. I was a Craig Kimbrel-no-Matter-What HOF guy, and now I’m not sure” What do you think Jay? I seem to recall you were never a Kimbrel-HoF guy to begin with.

Jay Jaffe: Up until a couple of years ago, Kimbrel was dead-even with Kenley Jansen when it came to Hall of Fame chances, but Kenley’s kept on ticking to the point that he’s now 3rd in saves and still closing (though things aren’t going great in Detroit) while Kimbrel got out of whack mechanically and never found his way back. I think their Hall of Fame chances are still pretty close and it’s going to depend a lot more on whether the writers are going to honor ANY relievers in the near future than whether they split hairs between the two. And I think that if they don’t get in via that route, they’ll be easy honorees via the Era Committee down the road.

Jay Jaffe: it rarely ends well for relievers but that’s one of the reasons why candidates have a 5-year waiting period – it cleanses the palate and washes away the memories of those nomadic final seasons. We’ll remember the dominance first and foremost.

doughboy: Is there ever a reasonable explanation to continue to roster and start a -1.0 war player like Wenceel Perez? Yes, there are injuries, but to consistently roll him out due to “roster implications” seems negligent. What do you make of the 2026 Tigers and their current roster of 5 players with negative WAR, negative defensive metrics and battings averages primarily under .200? Seems sub-optimal to just continue riding this out and torpedoing season

Jay Jaffe: There’s always more to making out a roster and lineup than just a player’s current stats. Teams differ in their internal evaluations (we see his defense as plus, we like the way he balances the lineup, he’s a good clubhouse guy), they have inside information (this guy’s got some heath or personal stuff going on, or we really like the work he’s putting in with the hitting coach, or… etc), and so on. Doesn’t always make it the most defensible baseball move to keep playing the guy, and I get that the current regime in Detroit may not merit the benefit of the doubt, but I don’t think Perez is their biggest problem. He was a league-average hitter just last year, and the Tigers have to believe he’s not far off from regaining that kind of form

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, we’ve run this about as far as we can. Thanks so much for stopping by this week!