Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/21/26

Dan Szymborski: Since there is a time to every purpose under heaven, so to there is one for SzymChat

WonderWall: Is Zips buying what Kyle Harrison has been doing so far?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly-ish?

Dan Szymborski: He’s “down” about three tens of a run in the ZiPS ROS basic model

Dan Szymborski: and right now, his 2027-2029 ERA+ projections are 103, 107, 109

Dan Szymborski: So it’s at least confident he’s a 2/3 dude

Dan Szymborski: But not in “he’s an ace now” territory

drewsylvania: I did notice you were gone!  I’ve been going “where’s Dan?”

Dan Szymborski: JUST LIKE PIOOCHY

Dan Szymborski: POOCHY

Dan Szymborski: POOCHIE? I forget how it’s spelled

ProfessorRossEforp: since all star break last year guards are 71-47 and tigers are 48-67

Ryan: Do you have any insights with the Guardians dominating the year to year change leaderboard for swing length and most of those guys seem to be having better results. The oddest part is they are not seeing gains in bat speed (according to savant)

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I do not; it’s hard to say whether it’s an approach

Yesavages in the Box: Trey Yesavage has just one plus pitch, but man he looked good last night. Do you think he has to add a new look to become a true long-term ace, or is the splitter enough to carry him to glory?

Dan Szymborski: I think it can be

Dan Szymborski: And he’s on the right team for a dude using mostly his splitter in several ways to be really good, since Kevin Gausman is RIGHT TEHRE!

Dan Szymborski: Oh crap, I hit delete on a Q

Dan Szymborski: It was about the three most TTO players of all time

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry)

Dan Szymborski: Rather than a literal BIP%, I’ll go with more philosophical avataras

Dan Szymborski: Rob Deer is kind of the proto-TTO dude, the one that caught the imagination of statheads

Dan Szymborski: Late-stage Barry Bonds kind of the Platonic ideal of a TTO guy

Dan Szymborski: and Dave Kingman as when it all goes wrong

With a smile: So relieved/happy to read you back. Aside: does ZIPS acknowledge physical make up of a player. Meaning a 5 foot 7 inch Luis Lara or a 6 foot 4 inch Ed Florentino.

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t; I just haven’t found the data to be all that useful. Perhaps someone else has found it so in a different approach

Soddingjunkmail: With the guardians punting on catcher offense and going all in on catcher defense with Hedges and Bailey, it got me thinking: Is this (defense first catching) the “secret sauce” for their pitching development pipeline?

Dan Szymborski: It MIGHT be. But I’m also wary of the idea that Austin hedges is secreetly good

sadtrombone: Dan you were on vacation? No wonder things seemed so dull around here.

Dan Szymborski: You’r ejust humoring me!

Derek: From a viewership perspective, would you personally rather watch a pitchers duel or a slugfest of a game?

Dan Szymborski: I like a good mix of things

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t want blowouts

Dan Szymborski: Especially if I’m AT the park

Dan Szymborski: Since if you’re at the park, you can’t just flip to one of the other dozen games going on

Dan Szymborski: Thought it might be funny to be in the Reds pressbox and very clearly having another game on my laptop and paying attention to THAT game

Ryan: My girlfriend just moved in with me last weekend, and we’re having a bit of a hard time integrating her cat with my two cats. Do you have any advice on introducing cats and getting them used to each other?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, set aside a separate place with the new household cat. No direct meeting initially but let them smell each other’s scents. Occasionally flip with the old household cats in the new cats territory and the new household cat outside the room.

Dan Szymborski: Cats learn a lot about other cats and gain familiarity with scent

Guest: I’ve been puzzled by Arizona manager Torrey Lovullo’s bullpen usage.  In particular his apparent reluctance to use Juan Morillo, who is listed here as the #2 guy.  He’s pitched 3 innings since 5/08.  Despite his 1.83 xERA and his 9.61/2.39 numbers.  Is he mildly injured and being rested?  Is he in the doghouse for some reason?  Appreciate any insight you can offer, thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t know either, though I did notice that he’s being used a lot in low-leverage situations suddenly

Guest: Will the Marlins ever actually win again?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not a bad team!

Alex: Dom Smith is quietly having a nice season as the Braves’ part-time DH; even though it’s just been 100 PA, he’s clearly had his best results since his 2020 breakout. Any clues that this might not be a mirage, and that perhaps, this time, he might have found a role that could suit him for a while?

Dan Szymborski: I’m highly skeptical. So is ZiPS; it estimates his zBABIP at like 50 points lower than it is

Dan Szymborski: which he’d still be pretty good. But he’s been so aggressive at the plate, that I’ll be more confident if he’s still doing this after a pitcher adjustment cycle

Big Buckston: TJ Rumfield: Haven’t seen him talked about much, but seems like he may have been a sneaky good pickup for a rebuilding Rockies team? He looks like he belongs in the big leagues and was a great get for a fringey relief guy.

Dan Szymborski: He was a good idea to get. The Rockies have figured out for the last two years or so that the “throw shit to the wall and see what sticks” portion of a rebuild doesn’t mean do that with 34 year old fringe MLBers

oaktownblues: Did Henry Bolte’s AAA showing meaningfully improve his ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: It did, but I have to open the full ZiPS to get it (which I’m doing now)

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, mechanic just called to let me know that my brake job will be done tomorrow.

Dan Szymborski: Dealer wanted $1600 for front/back pads and rotors, which is crazy. Luckily, the mechanic is only charging 950

Dan Szymborski: My pads were down at 2/16 and 3/16 despite only 28K miles because apparently I drive like a crazed baboon.

Dan Szymborski: OK yes, on Bolte

Dan Szymborski: his full fat ZiPS ROS wRC+ is 105

oaktownblues: What are the main things captured by full-fat ZiPS that the simpler ROS model leaves out?

Dan Szymborski: Minor league data, statcast data

Dan Szymborski: The minor league thing, we still have to set up FG to do automatic translations

Dan Szymborski: the other stuff is a lot harder and some of the things ZiPS does to model the future

Dan Szymborski: It takes more than 24 hours of PC time to do a full run of batters and pitchers, so a simpler model is used in-season on-site

Your Name: What scale does ZiPS use for defensive value? DRS thought defense ranged from +89 to -59 on a team level last year for a 148 run range versus FRV at only +44 to -53 for a much narrower 97 run range.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it constrained to a specific range

Oliver Fox: What explains this Aroldis Chapman late-30s Linsanity run on the Red Sox? Can’t just be that he’s using a sinker more, right?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s a 99 mph sinker!

Dan Szymborski: I can’t prove it, but he seems a lot less “cute” on first pitches than he used to be

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to do a search later to see if my inclination is right

Dan Szymborski: It FEELS like he’s less likely to throw 0-0 pitches and dares hitters to guess between fastball/sinker

War2D2: Dan! I already complained about this to Jay, but the Cubs have been remarkably bad at leaving runners on base, averaging almost 1 more runner per game than the next-worst team (the Pirates). If I see Alex Bregman pop out with runners in scoring position one more time I’m gonna barf. This is all small-sample pain, right? Right? Please god tell me I’m right.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, things that aren’t predictive can still feel like crap

Dan Szymborski: Like the time my mom got a flat tire in her car, borrowed my car, and got a flat tire in my car the next day

Dan Szymborski: Which still annoys me because she called me when she got the second flat tire and I’m like “what do you expect me to do, you already have my car, call Meg”

Dan Szymborski: Oops, my sister Meg, not FanGraphs Meg

Ian: The O’s predictably have bottomed out but its not just the pitching. Projections and pundits liked this lineup in the preseason. As someone who has been a doubter of most this young core since 2024, why do you think projections were still high on this lineup? e.g. Colton Cowser had a 4 oWAR projection

Dan Szymborski: I mean, there’s no systematic reason for projections to like them

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes, a rose is just a rose. They’re just playing poor, inconsistent baseball

Justin: Will Jesus made be called up this year?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect no

oaktownblues: I’m going to Petco Park for the first time this weekend, any tips/insights/warnings?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve only been there once, so I don’t have particular insight, but I’ll leave this open for anyone who DOES have tips/insight/warnings

Dan Szymborski: I see a lot more East/Central parks than West parks. I absolutely hate flying

Dan Szymborski: I have a fear of flying just enough to make it annoying. I still get on the damn plane

Dan Szymborski: but it does mean that I don’t fly a whole bunch unless I really NEED to

Dan Szymborski: so I’m not out west very often

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’ve been west of Las Vegas since before 2018

JWR: How can the Cubs go so quickly from world-beaters to bums?  Who do you like to win the NL Central now–Brewers, Cubs or the field?

Dan Szymborski: Still Cubs

Nolan Arenado: Am I back?

Dan Szymborski: Feels more like a last hurrah than being back

Dan Szymborski: but I’ll still take it

Guest: re: Guardians swing length – it’s a Progressive Field glitch that started in late April
https://x.com/hscer/status/2056495127187628422

Dan Szymborski: good catch!

OttoKempBots, Roll Out: What are the odds of an “everybody gets old at once” crash for the Dodgers. I know they’re low, but something feels a little off about Freeman and Betts, and…

Dan Szymborski: I mean FAIRLY low to have it all happen at once, but I do keep bringing it up as a worry

Dan Szymborski: the Dodgers are not a young team

Dan Szymborski: Not that they don’t develop talent, but the most valuable players are MOSTLY not very young

Terrance: Would you seriously consider calling the Rays and gauging their interest in some of your own prospects to see which ones you should never trade? I’m being serious.

Dan Szymborski: Even the Rays slip up once in a while

Dan Szymborski: Marquez, Cronenworth

Dan Szymborski: Remember, when they were involved in the three way Wil Myers trade, it was the NATS who wanted Trea Turner

War2D2: Mike Petriello just posted on Bluesky (which I can’t help but pronounce in my head as “Blooski” in a Joliet Jake accent) that Ke’bryan Hayes has been a mediocre-to-bad fielder this year, rendering him almost unplayable. Defense doesn’t usually crater like this year-over-year, does it? Dude is only 29 but has an OPS+ in the teens and if he’s not fielding…eesh.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he bascially has to be a Gold Glover to be a MLBer

Tacoby Bellsbury: Oh thank goodness, anonymous chats are back.

Idiotic Failson: I noticed that you were gone on vacation. Don’t do that again without clearance.

Idiotic Failson: I feel like people throw around ’99 MPH sinker’ or ‘100 mph cutter’ too flippantly. A pitch moving that fast then moving at the last minute is diabolical.

Lord Thunder: Why have the Orioles fallen so short of the expectations from several years ago?

Dan Szymborski: Paying back for the 2023 when everyone was mad at me? Lol

Patient Zero: Question I’ve been sitting on for a few weeks now: Do you consider Kevin Mitchell’s one-bare-handed catch to be the single greatest defensive play of all time, or merely one of the best? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: That was a fun play

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see the starting point though from an overhead cam

War2D2: Petco is probably the best fan experience I’ve had, and I’ve been to a dozen parks. Everything just really flows well there, there’s a lot to do and see for young kids, the weather is perfect, and the food is good. I don’t have any special insight other than to say you’ll probably have a great time regardless.

Mike Trout Mask Replica: Welcome back Dan! Can you please bring the Tigers back from vacation too?

PokeyReese’04: Top 3 teams you would be skeptical of trading with (Rays, Brewers, ____)?

Dan Szymborski: Angels, because I’m not sure they have what I want!

Poochie The Rockin’ Dog: I’m a kung fu hippie from Gangsta City

ROS Adjustments: I’ve always wondered how projection systems adjust to players who exceed expectations. At some point, a player establishes a new baseline for performance, right? How is early performance weighed against other inputs? The short answer would be great

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS mixes in the new performance to set a new baseline and then reprojects

Stop, OAA don’t love you like I love you: Jordan Walker has 7 DRS and 0 OAA. Do you have any sense of what typically contributes to gaps like this?

Dan Szymborski: Well, you have a human-involved methodology and a tracking-related one, so you’re going to get different results in small samples

Jeremy: How sure are we that the Brewers have some sort of secret sauce that allows them to consistently outperform their projections? It’s only a few seasons over which they’ve been doing this. Even if no team has any secret sauce that the projection systems aren’t capturing, surely it’s not surprising if (at least) one team out of 30 outperforms its projections a few seasons in a row.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they have a secret sauce. The *team* actually outperforms their projections far more than the individual players have as a gruop

Dan Szymborski: What happens in the case of ZiPS, is the Brewers are way more aggressive at promoting players than I’ve assumed when doing the sims

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t doing a bad job projecting players. *I’m* doing a poor job at projecting who will get playing time

EccentricATLFan: Just curious to know what else is in your will after finding out “continuing your TI-92 feud with your sister even after your death” is part of it.

Dan Szymborski: My executor has to say something mean about Carson on my birthday every year

Dan Szymborski: on my Twitter account

Dan Szymborski: My will also contains the location of the encrypted ZiPS thumb drive hidden in a state park

Dan Szymborski: also, anybody who uses circumstances of my death for a political end, even one I agree with, does not get anything

Dan Szymborski: Also, Alan has to beat Blaster Master on NES without save states on an emulator

Dan Szymborski: He hated that game

Dan Szymborski: He’s been my best friend for 40 years and I KNOW he’ll endeavor to do all the stupid stuff in my will

Guest: dan, you’re no poochie. we want you to survive the trip back to your home planet ; )

Guest: is Basallo a top 10 C ROS or is Adley still the guy

Dan Szymborski: I think with defense, no

The Oriole Bird: What’s up with Gunnar Henderson?

Dan Szymborski: I wish I knew! If anyone does, please call the O’s

Guest: After two losses to the Nationals, I’m back to feeling this season will just be tragic for the Mets. Is it possible you or ZIPS can offer an optimism besides “Bichette won’t be this bad all year”?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is the hole they dug. Even if they’re the team projections thought, they probably fall short of playoffs

Your Name: So far the Brewers are at 5.04 R/G and 3.45 RA/G. BaseRuns thinks they should be at 4.63 R/G and 3.44 RA/G. Depth Charts projects 4.49 R/G and 4.32 RA/G rest of season. PECOTA is around 4.60 R/G and 4.04 RA/G. What says ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Last check, ZiPS was around 4.70

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been more aggrssive this year giving playing time to the guys with good projections

Jeremy: Is Aaron Nola cooked? And if he is cooked, why? He hasn’t lost fastball velocity (though he has lost it relative to the league average–is that part of it?). He doesn’t seem to have lost stuff or command, as best I can tell.

Dan Szymborski: HAS he not lost command? I mean he’s not walking a lot of guys, but he certainly looks like he hangs some stuff more than he used to

dooz: is quinn mathews still a guy for St Louis?

Dan Szymborski: He might be, but I think he’s very close to the time they have to try him in the bullpen

Dan Szymborski: His command has been and he may need to edit down his repertoire and simplify the approach, which is easier to do in relief

Smartest Man in Baseball btw: The Red Sox really won the Salary Dump Jackpot and then just went “actually we’d rather just suck lol,” huh?

Joe: Is Mickey Gasper an everyday big leaguer?

Dan Szymborski: Everyday? probably not. But he’s been more interesting offensively than people have been given credit for

salvo: Re: visits to Petco: the sun on the 1b side of the stands can be brutal on a warm day game.

Mike Trout Mask Replica: The Tigers have looked cooked lately, but at least Riley Greene is on a heater! Is this a new Riley 3.0, or just a really lucky BABIP stretch? Its clear that he’s swinging at less absolute garbage than last year and taking more walks. Does this look like a conscious decision to trade off some power for contact, or is it just a random fluctuation?

Dan Szymborski: I’m hopeful in that as you note, he DID come back down from the increased aggression he had last year

Dan Szymborski: BA will come down of course

Your Name: The Brewers have beat their preseason Depth Charts win projections in eight of the nine complete seasons since 2016 for a cumulative +87 wins, five of those seasons have been +12 wins or more. They are on pace for another double digit overage again this year. It’s more than a few seasons at this point, Jeremy.

Dan Szymborski: I can only speak on the ZiPS end

RaysUP: Erik Neander > everyone. That’s all.

Sirras: Dan, would you rather get into a tense argument with two Jose Altuve sized Aaron Judges or one Aaron Judge sized Jose Altuve?

Dan Szymborski: One Aaron Judge-sized Altuve

Dan Szymborski: it’s harder to get a word in edgewise against two people

Dan Szymborski: and if it becomes violent, I’m going to have a better shot at one guy than two, even if the one guy is bigger

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have an article to write for tomorrow, so have to call this at a tight 60 this time

Dan Szymborski: See y’all next time!