Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/13/26
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. THis is my second time on our new internal platform and I'm still feeling my way around this thing.
As a reminder, you need to be logged into your user account (not necessarily a paid member, but thank you if you are) to submit questions.
I've got a piece on Victor Mesa Jr. in the pipeline for today
Yesterday I previewed the ALCS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-alcs-preview-rays-face-guar…
Anyway, let's goooo…
How much does Jose Ramirez finally having a postseason to remember impact his HOF odds?
It doesn't hurt him, obviously, but I think the heavy lifting has already been done. He's not yet at the JAWS standard for third baseman, but he's above the peak standard (44.7 vs. 43.4). He'll get some additional limelight when he passes 300 homers (he's at 297) and 2,000 hits (1,779). Another trip to the World Series would be a feather in his cap, too.
I've got a piece on Ramírez's rebound from his slump on track for later this week, incidentally.
Why did the Fangraphs Playoff odds change in the past hour? I noticed the Dodgers were below 25% and they seemed to have inched back up above 25% since then?
Without looking, I'm not sure, but it could be because starting pitchers were named or lineups were adjusted. The odds aren't set in stone, they're adjusted as we get new inputs.
Are you familiar with King of the Mound?
It’s on my kid’s school reading list and is apparently about Satchel Paige and his time with the integrated Bismarcks. I’d never heard of that part of Paige’s barnstorming.
I'm not familiar with that book, either. I don't have a strong recollection of the Bismarcks, but they're covered in Larry Tye's Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend, which was pubbed in 2009 and which I really liked.
We don't have many questions in the queue at the moment, so don't be shy about submitting yours
Going into collective bargaining, a Brewers vs. Guardians or Rays WS is just about the best outcome for the MLBPA and the worst for the owners, right?
Yes, and it's probably even better now that the Dodgers are down 2-0 and looking like they're on the ropes.
What's your personal ranked choice vote for the remaining 4 teams in order of how much you are rooting for them to win the WS?
Beyond the obvious links to my growing up a Dodgers and and generally defaulting to them as a rooting preference, I really don't have strong preferences here — the Brewers and Padres are kind of neck-and-neck in terms of the NL teams besides the Dodgers and Mets (for geographic reasons) that I watch most, so maybe Milwaukee if I had to pick?
The fact that the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians are all among the more analytically inclined teams obviously has some appeal here too. USA Today's Gabe Lacques had a good piece on these teams' interconnections yesterday https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/gabe-lac…
The "sit Ohtani?" discussion is ridiculous, right? Like, yeah he's been bad but can the solution to your problems possibly be "bench the greatest player alive?" Feels like there should be 10 more things to adjust before that.
I feel like we're back to the 2024 World Series after he injured his shoulder, where the information regarding his true condition was a closely-kept secret and his value in the lineup rest partially on being a decoy. His at-bats haven't been great, and he hasn't pulled a ball in the air since August. I'm not 100% sure I don't pull the DePaula lever myself with the team down 2-0, but I don't know exactly what he's dealing with.
Thoughts on MLB's proposed changes regarding season and playoff length?
Didn't love it but it didn't stink on ice like every other MLB trial balloon they've launched during this propaganda cycle. If you're going to shorten the schedule, 154 games is the obvious number to start with, but what will happen is the owners will say, ok, your salaries will be cut 5% to account for this shorter schedule and then the proposal will be deader than Babe Ruth.
Have you ever thought about a JAWS equivalent for managers/coaches?
I've thought about lots of applications for JAWS — and a medical journal even cited it for a "peak plus average" study that they did that was unrelated to sports — but I haven't come up with anything useful enough to unveil.
If there's a lockout I'll go back to the lab.
The most fun I've had thinking about a JAWS application is Astronaut JAWS because I'm a bit of a spaceflight nerd. I watch Apollo documentaries and just about any sci-fi movie where They Puttin On Helmets.
regarding the Brewers making the world series being bad for owners' bargaining position, do you think players on eliminated teams see it that way and are actively rooting for the brewers? Or is it such a small factor and MLB players are recuperating from the season to a degree they don't get that invested in the playoffs after they're out
Mostly the latter, I don't think the players get particularly invested unless they have ties to certain players, coaches, or execs with those teams.
How far back would the mound have to be moved for there to be a notable change in the way pitchers have to pitch?
I think even a foot changes things. I know this is a common suggestion for how to fix baseball but every time it comes up I look at the injury data and think "You wanna place more stress on pitchers' arms?" because it's human nature that they're going to work harder to approximate their current velocity rather than deciding to live with lower velo.
If Posey is the most likely inductee, and Utley and Felix are running 2nd and 3rd, who do you see making a big jump this year? Pettitte? Pedroia/Wright? Rollins riding Utley's coattails?
edited
I think Pedroia riding the coattails of Utley (and to some extent Andruw Jones) is the mosst likely of t hose outcomes, maybe a bit more momentum for Pettitte as voters realize that he'll be a dead letter in front of the Era Committee given the Hall's engineered panels.
With Chris Sale seemingly cementing his place in Cooperstown after his stint in Atlanta, which other active starting pitchers, who are maybe at a career inflection point, could put themselves in that discussion with a strong run in their mid to late-30s?
Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom all need to make some additional waves if they're t o replicate Sale's late-30s recovery. Wrote about them in August https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-chris-sale-…
Beyond that, maybe the next hope would be Max Fried, who has lacked volume but has performed well, but he's had just one season above 5.0 WAR and that's not gonna turn any voter's head.
If ohtani were to be healthy enough to pitch, in what role would the dodgers be most inclined to use him. It feels as though they wouldn't necessarily need him in the starting staff but could they use him as a reliever?
The problem with using him as a reliever is that once he comes out he'd have to take a position in order to remain in the game. The rule built specifically to showcase him doesn't apply in those cases.
Joe Espada is being interviewed by the Mariners for their Manager position. Is this the right fit for both sides?
I don't know that he's a perfect fit but I haven't seen anything to suggest he'd be a bad one. it's been awhile since I thought the Mariners had a good manager, and if they hired him, I'd probably think it was a solid move unless there was a candidate I thought more highly of.
Posey shouldn't be eligible until he is completely out of baseball IMO. There is conflict of interest and puts especially local writers in an impossible situation.
Did you see the knives come out for Posey during all his screw-ups this year? I trust the professionalism of the Giants' beat reporters who have votes and their ability to separate the player from the executive.
Are the Phillies now in the same spot as the 2010-11 team where the title contention window is almost closed and they have to play out Ryan Howard’s contract (Now Trea/Harper’s contract). Unless a magically pop up prospect happens, I cant see any path to a winning team until a tear down happens.
I don't know about the EXACT spot, and I don't think Harper at this stage is nearly the mllstone that Turner looks like he is, but they do need an overhaul. This team has both Luzardo and Sánchez tied up long term whereas that one had only Lee beyond the 2014 option for Halladay that they declined.
my idea to fix the mound is to shorten the pitching rubber by a few inches on each side. Not a drastic fix, but eliminates *some* pitcher advantage, because they're all over that thing trying to have more deceptive deliveries / angles.
Hmm, I'd at least entertain the notion of seeing this implemented in the AFL or Atlantic League for a closer look.
Thoughts on the AFL experiment restricting outfielder positioning? Also, if that becomes the MLB rule, surely we need to call it the "Strawberry Patch" rule after Daryl Strawberry, right?
and speaking of which, I don't like this one at all, given the amount of tech involved. So far, I think the answer is move the fences back and make them higher, and revisit the strike one boundaries (or maybe check swings) in order to help increase offense
By my count there has only been 1 world series in the last 100 years where neither team had won a title before. If Milwaukee and Tampa advance, it would happen, likely for the last time. How exciting would you find that matchup on those grounds alone?
Are you telling me we won't see a Padres-Mariners World Series?
(Ever, I mean. Obviously not this year)
I do think it would be cool to see a World Series that guarantees a first-time title, but I don't want to knock the other possibilities. The Guardians are long overdue for a title, especially given the high quality of that organization over the past 30+ years . If the Dodgers come back, they'll be in a rematch of one that happened in 1920 or 2020 and in pursuit of just the fifth threpeat ever and first of any NL team. Those are all interesting outcomes.
I don't quite understand the "if you move the mound back, pitchers will just maximise velo and break even more". Aren't they already pushing as hard as they can?
Yes, but that obviously hasn't stopped anyone from pushing the envelope. It's always going to be "how can I keep my velo in the upper tier" before it's "gosh, i better learn to throw a new pitch"
Just read Mike Vaccaro’s (sp?) new book on George Steinbrenner – good read! In your opinion, Do books like that coming out have any sway with the Hall as it sets up the latest Eras committee? Something that makes them more inclined to add a Steinbrenner/stack the committee accordingly?
Eh, minimal I think. And I don't think there's going to be a crushing rush to make Steinbrenner a candidate when there are so many managers on the doorstep. the Boss got less than five votes in 2017 and '19, which would be a strike against his future candidacy if he gets another one under the newish rule.
Also, I don't think the Hall wants a twice-suspended owner in, to be honest.
If you were making the dodgers lineup, would you make radical changes in hopes of a spark or trust the veterans who got you there? Examples being struggles of Smith, Betts, Ohtani with De Paula on the bench and Tucker/Muncy further down in the order.
I think this is an overraction to two games. Tucker's hitting .300/.391/.500 in the postseason, Muncy is slugging .684. If there's particular matchup stuff regarding the starting pitcher for Game 3, I might give it more sway but I'm not sure Robert Gasser represents such an imposing opponent that they're going to upend everything.
Where do the Phillies turn for a manager now that Cora has (reportedly) rebuffed their approach? Remove Mattingly's interim tag? It's a veteran team that's clearly on the downswing. Feels like a bunch of potential candidates either wouldn't want the gig, or wouldn't be the right fit for it because the vets wouldn't respect them.
I think bringing back Mattingly would be on par with returning Turner to shortstop and assuming Nola is a top-of-the-rotation guy. Just a foolish waste when the clock is ticking. Current coaches like Kai Correa, Ruben Niebla and George Lombard Sr. might be fits as might experienced guys like David Ross, Rocco Baldelli, and Espada, but so much will come down to who Dombrowski connects with.
Will we ever see a healthy Ohtani for a full season as both hitter and pitcher again?
We're never going to see a 200-inning Ohtani and I'd be surprised if we see a 162-inning Ohtani. I think 100-120 innings is going to become the target if he's healthy.
Here's the Mesa piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/victor-mesa-jr-has-hardly-platea…
If you were asked, would you accept a position at the Hall to help formulate committees and make decisions on voting?
I'd be happy to consult with them so long as it didn't mean giving up my day job here as well as my voting privileges.
But I don't see myself as winding up on a Hall payroll, if that's what you're asking.
I’m interested in the idea that a Tamp/Cleveland v Brewers WS undercuts the cap logic (it probably does) but might miss the forest for the trees in that it tells the massive middle tier of franchises they don’t have to spend in FA to win. Noses, faces, spite, etc
Eh, if the runs by the current teams haven't already underscored it, the reason they're playing in an LCS is because they are well-run, forward-thinking teams that search for any edge they can get, not simply because they don't spend money in free agency. Theirs isn't the only way to succeed, but it's not a recipe that's replicable just because you *don't* spend in FA.
Pat Murphy about to win MOY for the 3rd consecutive season in the NL. His regular season W% currently is top 25 in history surrounded by HOFers. There is basically no precedent for someone who started this late, but is there a pathway to the HOF for him especially if he leads the Brewers to their first WS?
I think that's a tough lift for a guy who's already 67. If we presume that the Brewers' current success will be harder to maintain as their current core gets more expensive – and as their pitchers deal with injuries, ahem — they'll be subject to the usual gravity any competitive team faces. Will he ride that out? Will his career look as impressive after three years below .500 somewhere in there? I'm just spitballing here but I think he's a longshot simply because of the late start.
The Dodgers aren't successful because they spend money, it's how they spend it that counts. And the Brewers aren't successful just because they don't sign FAs, they invest heavily in other areas (that many teams neglect) to help offset the approach. Easy to attempt, far harder to replicate from both sides, as evidenced by ample teams failures.
yup yup yup
I am left wanting by the metrics I've seen on who is good/bad on pitch challenges. We need metrics that consider the number of opportunities to challenge, how egregious the original call was, even maybe some leverage stuff and accounting for how many challenges a team has left. Current "How many times did a guy challenge correctly?" or "What % of time are challenges correct?" need to be improved.
Players and managers aren't the only ones feeling their way around the new system. Give it time and I imagine you'll see more advanced applications — and for all we know some teams are working on this
How seriously should we take the talk of a possibly "juiced" ball in minor league play in 2026? (Whether intentional, or just a variance in the seams.)
I'd like to see some actual data before I take it seriously. PCL scoring went down, IL scoring went up but was still below 2023-2024 levels. Lower than that isn't really something I'm attuned to but if there's something there, let's see the numbers.
Do you think the HoF arguments now need to be “TikTok”ized? Meaning the 500 HR, 300 Wins benchmarks need to be severely cut down? The debate of DeGrom is what drives me on this. Any Fangraphs reader who watched him pitch knows that he’s on a very short list of all time great pitchers.
voters already largely recognize the increasing rarity of those once-automatic benchmarks but I think it's going to take a more radical shakeup to get deGrom into the Hall. I'm not incredibly sold on him right now, as I wrote in the piece linked above
FWIW, Savant's ABS data does have leverage aspects and they did just add some accounting for losing a challenge. I don't necessarily agree with the exact implementation/numbers chosen, but it's at least a start.
Thanks
regarding the minor league ball, it's a different ball for AA and below so the PCL/IL scoring is not relevant. BG/Eric have been all over the juiced ball in the lower levels
Noted, and yes, that rings a bell.
What do you see for Bauers on the free agent trail? He's earned a contract but the short history and current age suggest something pretty nominal, 2/$30? or does that fall short?
I think some kind of 2-3 year deal is a likely outcome. It's not the nicest thing to do to his market but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers QO him but also make clear that there's some kind of longer-term option available as an alternative.
The Brewers bullpen is amazing, but can they keep riding it this hard all the way to a title? I kind of feel like playoff managers collectively have tend to lean a bit too hard into "win today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow."
The nature of the Division Series with its extra off days makes it a different creature than the LCS when it comes to bullpen management. I expect we'll see teams balancing the usage more, and familiarity effects setting in.
Ok folks, that's it from me for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, please tip your servers, and enjoy the baseball!
