Salary Cap Deep Dive: Buffalo Sabres

Aug 21, 2026 478 views

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

As we do each year, PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2026-27 season, though in a slightly different format than before. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up are the Sabres.

2026-27

Upper Limit: $104MM
Current Cap Charge: $98,876,348
Cap Space: $5,123,652
Potential Bonuses: $1.075MM (most unlikely to be reached)
Dead Cap: $6,444,444 (Jeff Skinner buyout)

Expiring Contracts (RFA): D Louis Crevier ($900K), G Colten Ellis ($850K), F Noah Ostlund ($886,666 + $475K in ‘A’ bonuses), F Jack Quinn ($3.375MM)

Quinn had to take a bridge deal last year to allow Buffalo to afford the rest of their roster but that shouldn’t be the case next summer; the team will have flexibility to pick their path. He’s coming off a 51-point year and there are expectations for him to find another level. If that happens, a $6MM AAV on a shorter-term deal or something past $7MM on a medium-term pact feels like the right price point. Ostlund played a bottom-six role for most of last season and projects to be in that role this year, making his bonuses unlikely. He’s a viable bridge contract candidate and if he takes a step forward this season, it could push past the $3MM mark per year.

Crevier came over as part of the return from Chicago for Bowen Byram swap before the draft. He impressed on their third pairing last season and figures to be the fourth or fifth option on Buffalo’s back end. If he winds up with a bridge contract, it could land past $3MM per season. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see them for a longer-term agreement more in the $5MM range, one that buys a year or two of UFA eligibility.

Ellis needs to play in at least 13 games with the Sabres this season, averaging 30 minutes of ice time in each to remain RFA-eligible. Assuming he does that, he’ll have one final RFA year with arbitration eligibility. It seems unlikely he’d get a long-term commitment but a short-term pact around the $1.75MM mark could happen if he winds up with around as many starts as last season.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Sam Carrick ($1MM), F Justin Danforth ($1.8MM), G Alex Lyon ($1.5MM), D Zach Metsa ($850K), D Conor Timmins ($2.2MM), F Jason Zucker ($4.75MM)

Zucker’s short-term extension felt like an overpayment when it was first signed based on a good year but he produced at the same point-per-game clip last season. If he stays in the 20-goal, 50-point area, a small jump toward the $5.5MM mark feels doable, even with him turning 35 in January.

Last season was a write-off for Danforth, who played in just four games. If he can hold down a fourth-line spot, something in this range is realistic. But if his lineup spot isn’t as secure, he could drop closer to $1MM as well. Carrick can win draws, kill penalties, and be effective defensively. The market has shown it’s willing to pay more for that combination so doubling his price tag even at 35 feels likely.

Timmins missed as many games due to a leg injury (38) as he played last season which doesn’t help from a contract projection standpoint. Despite a limited role, he has steadily secured small raises on his contracts and if his level of play is similar this season, that pattern should continue, with a price tag approaching the $3MM mark on a short-term deal. Metsa got his first taste of NHL action last season and held his own, albeit in a very sheltered role. A high-end producer in the minors, he could secure a one-way pact next summer but it’s likely to stay close to the minimum.

Lyon showed that his level of play with Detroit was indeed repeatable, providing solid value on a low-cost deal for a backup (who pushed for the starting role at times). He probably isn’t going to be viewed as a full-fledged starter (especially in a three-goalie system) but Lyon has gone from being a fringe backup to a legitimate one. That could allow him to double his next contract.

2027-28

Projected Upper Limit: $113.5MM
Current Cap Charge: $77,718,432 (14 players signed)
Cap Space: $35,781,568
Potential Bonuses: $600K (some could reasonably be reached)
Dead Cap: $2,444,444 (Skinner buyout)

That cap room needs to be divided up across quite a few players although there should be ample room to extend Quinn and Zucker while keeping a second goalie and re-signing Ostlund. If the others don’t return, they will have a few roster spots to fill but enough cap room to be a lot more aggressive in free agency than they were this summer.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Konsta Helenius ($953,750 + $600K ‘A’ bonuses), F Tyson Kozak ($875K)

Helenius impressed in a brief NHL stint last season while even getting into some playoff games to officially start his contract. If he can lock down a top-six spot over the next couple of years, he’d have a shot at hitting some of his bonuses and might have a shot at skipping a bridge contract. Otherwise, he’s another player where a short-term second deal might be desirable; if things went well development-wise, that could still pass the $4MM mark. Kozak was a capable bottom-six energy piece when healthy, giving them some good value on a low-cost deal. He’ll be arbitration-eligible when the deal ends and if he’s still holding down a fourth-line spot while bringing plenty of physicality, doubling this price tag seems like the floor of what his next contract would be.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): None

2028-29

Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $75,889,683 (9 players signed)
Cap Space: $47,110,317
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: $2,444,444 (Skinner buyout)

As things stand, the 2028 summer feels pretty straightforward for GM Jarmo Kekalainen. Barring a Helenius breakout, the increase to the cap should move than cover new deals for him and Kozak, while leaving some extra wiggle room.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): D Olen Zellweger ($3.1MM)

Buffalo swung a move to add Zellweger to help replace Byram’s offense and signed him to a contract that already looks low compared to what Anaheim gave Pavel Mintyukov, who was in the same situation with his entry-level deal ending. He may not get enough prime offensive minutes to put up a lofty point total but if he can take on a bigger role with the Sabres, doubling this deal seems doable.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($4.75MM), F Ryan McLeod ($5MM)

When former GM Kevyn Adams signed McLeod to this deal on the heels of a breakout year, there were plenty of questions as this was a high price for someone who had just surpassed 30 points for the first time. However, now that he put up a second year of over 50 points, now it starts to look more like a bargain, especially in the current contract context. McLeod will be entering his age-30 year in 2029 when his next deal begins and if he hangs around this level of production, he’ll have established himself as a legitimate second-line center. The price for those players has already gotten quite high and will only go higher. He could add several million per season to his rate on a long-term deal.

Luukkonen’s tenure with Buffalo has been up and down. At times, he has been an above-average starter and at others, he has been a lower-end backup. This price tag isn’t excessive for someone who they think can be a starter but before long, they’re going to want some more consistency. He’ll need to take a step or two forward to beat this price tag on his next contract.

2029-30

Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $63,039,683 (9 players signed)
Cap Space: $70,460,317
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: $2,444,444 (Skinner buyout – final year)

Again, the increase to the cap should be enough to afford the raises likely coming to Zellweger and McLeod, in particular. If Luukkonen emerges as a true starter, they could have trouble affording him unless they’re operating with at least a few million extra in spending room.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Peyton Krebs ($4.5MM), F Joshua Norris ($7.95MM), D Mattias Samuelsson ($4,285,715), F Tage Thompson ($7,142,857)

When healthy, Norris is a legitimate second-line center at a price point that holds up in this market. The problem is that he’s rarely healthy. He has only reached the 60-game mark once in six full NHL seasons. His health will largely dictate his value on the second half of his contract and determine if he’ll get a similar offer down the road or one considerably lower due to injuries.

Considering Thompson’s contract was signed after one breakout year, it carried considerable risk. If he went back to being a bottom-six piece, this contract would come back to bite them. It hasn’t. Instead, he has become a consistent top-line performer, playing largely down the middle (though spending some time on the wing). Accordingly, they have gotten quite the bargain already on the deal. As long as he maintains his top-line production, that consistency and his size will be very appealing to teams if he makes it to the open market. With that in mind, it’s not impossible to think that he could double this price tag on his next deal, even though he’ll be close to turning 33 when his next contract begins.

Krebs just signed this deal earlier this offseason on the heels of a career-best 39-point season. For someone who has primarily played in the bottom six, it feels a little on the high side although there were enough market comparables to justify the price. He’ll need to sustain (or at least come close to sustaining) that level of production if he wants any sort of notable raise on his next contract.

Samuelsson went from being a player with a declining role to one a breakout performer. He set career highs across the board while seeing his playing time jump to nearly 23 minutes per night. Several years after being expected to take that next step forward, he did so and more. If he can maintain this level, this will be a significant bargain. Even if he slides back to a 20-minute-per-game player with a drop in production, this will still look a lot better than it did a couple of years ago.

Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond

For that season, there will be a new CBA in place so trying to forecast the cap and cap space basically becomes a guessing game. Accordingly, we’ll go back to the old Deep Dive format for players signed beyond the 2030-31 campaign.

F Zach Benson ($7.5MM through 2032-33)
D Rasmus Dahlin ($11MM through 2031-32)
F Josh Doan ($6.95MM through 2032-33)
F Beck Malenstyn ($2,916,667 through 2031-32)
D Owen Power ($8.35MM through 2030-31)

Benson signed his deal after an impressive playoff run, a sign that Buffalo thinks he has another level to get to. There is some risk in that his regular-season point production hasn’t been at a true top-six level yet although given that he’s 21, there’s a very good chance he has another gear to get to. Notably, he’ll only be 28 when this deal is up so there’s another opportunity for him to sign a long-term pact, one that should come in a few million higher than this, assuming he lives up to the expectations from this contract.

Doan signed this back in January and frankly, he probably left some money on the table given how he finished up his year and some recent contract signings. That said, a second-round pick getting this much money off an entry-level deal is still quite impressive. Assuming he stays on his current trajectory, like Benson, he should be in line to add several million more on his next contract. Malenstyn has been a capable energy forward for the last three years (two in Buffalo) and, as expected, the market for those players jumped this summer. The Sabres got in front of it with this deal. As long as he plays at the level he has since joining Buffalo, they’ll do alright with this agreement.

Dahlin has been one of the top defensemen in the NHL in recent years. He’s one of the top-paid ones now but that will change over the next several seasons as other players sign. He’ll be 32 when this deal ends and should still be able to command a long-term pact, suggesting he could also add several million per season to his next agreement. Power’s price tag was one of the highest for a defenseman coming off his entry-level deal and he hasn’t quite gotten to that level yet. With Byram gone now, there’s an opening for Power to possibly put up some better numbers offensively which would help him bring more value on this deal. If he can become a legitimate top-pairing piece, he could also add several million to his next AAV.

Outlook

The Sabres have quite a few long-term, below-market deals on their books already. While they’ve lost two key players this summer, their books are a lot cleaner for it as a result. They should be able to benefit from that over time.

Photo courtesy of Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.

Source: Brian La Rose · https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2026/08/salary-cap-deep-dive-buffalo-sabres-10.html

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2026-27

2027-28

2028-29

2029-30

Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond

Outlook

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